Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction: Will Bruce Brown Get Hot in NBA Finals Game 3?
The Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat play Game 3 of the NBA Finals later tonight. Will Bruce Brown get hot? Ben Rajavuori breaks it down and shares his pick.
Ben Rajavuori - June 7, 2023, 5:01 PM EDT
5 minMiami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction: Will Bruce Brown Get Hot in NBA Finals Game 3?
The Denver Nuggets dropped Game 2 as significant favorites and now hit the road to take on the Miami Heat in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. They are 2.5-point favorites tonight with a 1-1 tied series, and the public seems to like the Nuggets here on the road. While I am less sure of the side, I do think this game goes under 214.5, and on the same line of thinking as the full game under, I am fading Bruce Brown's points prop projection.
Heat vs. Nuggets Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: June 7, 2023
- Game Time: 8:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Game 3 Prediction
Bruce Brown is a bench player who comes in behind Michael Porter Jr. Porter had a horrible game two, shooting 2-8 and scoring five total points as the Nuggets third leading scorer in the postseason. As a result, Porter did not play as many minutes as expected. When Porter is not doing well offensively, Malone tends to have a short leash with him since he is not the best defensive player. While Porter brings offense, Brown brings defense. The Nuggets need offense tonight.
Bruce Brown actually ended up playing one more minute than Porter in Game 2, playing 27 minutes to Porter's 26. Even with the increased playing time, Brown ended with 11 points. In Game 1, Brown shot 4-7 and finished with 10 points.
Brown has actually pretty consistently hit 11 or more points in the postseason. He has hit 11 or more points in 12 of 17 postseason games this season, although he has hit exactly 11 in three of those. He has averaged 12 points in the playoffs this season and averages more points off the bench than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who has started all 17 games. But while Brown has teetered with this line in the first two games of the series, he has also had three turnovers in both games. These turnovers have been an issue and have hurt the Nuggets offensively.
The Nuggets were averaging 118 points per game in the postseason entering this game and scored 104 points in Game 1 and 108 in Game 2. While they are sound defensively, they need more offense in Game 3, especially going on the road. For that reason, I expect heavy minutes from Michael Porter Jr. and a bounce-back game for him.
Porter's size is also a better matchup against the Heat, and even if Porter doesn't get more minutes, Christian Braun played well in the first half of game two and could get more minutes in this game. Brown has been around this line pretty consistently in the playoffs, but Game 3 seems like a good time to fade him hitting double digits on the scoreboard tonight.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Game 3 Pick
Pick: Bruce Brown Under 10.5 Points -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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