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The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers play Game 6 on Friday night. Will Aaron Nesmith show up tonight in Game 6? Ben Rajavuori shares his best New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers player prop.
ANALYSIS

New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers Player Prop: Will Aaron Nesmith Show Up Tonight in Game 6?

The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers head back to Gainbridge Fieldhouse to square off in Game 6 of the series with the Knicks up 3–2. The Pacers will have to be on their A-game to force a Game 7 tonight, and the books think they will do it, as they are 5.5-point favorites to take care of business tonight. What should we expect in this game?

KNICKS VS. PACERS GAME 6 DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

  • Date: May 17, 2024
  • Start Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

NEW YORK KNICKS VS. INDIANA PACERS GAME 6 PREDICTION

This series has been one of the best to watch so far in the second round for me. The Pacers looked out-matched in games one and two before crawling back in this series with two wins at home to even it up. They then got blown out on the road in Game 5, but they come back home to Gainbridge Fieldhouse tonight, where they have played so well all year and in this postseason. The Pacers are currently 5–0 at home in the playoffs.

One player who has loved playing at home is Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith was a much better shooter at home this year, shooting 51.4% from the field at home and 48% on the road. He also shot 44% from three at home and just 40% on the road. Those splits have followed him into the playoffs and have gained even more space between locations.

Nesmith is averaging 11.8 points per game in the five games played at home in the postseason and just 8.5 points per game in the six games played on the road. He has shot abysmal on the road in the postseason, shooting 33% from the field and just 25% from three. He also has a -10 +/- on the road but a significantly better +12.8 +/- at home. Unsurprisingly, he has gotten more minutes at home as a result (45 at home, 31 on the road).

Aaron Nesmith is set at 9.5 points tonight with some juice on the over. He averaged 12.2 points per game during the regular season and 11 points per game in the first round of the postseason. He is now down to just 8.8 points per game in the second round, although he has had two games with shortened minutes due to the blowouts in Games 4 and 5. His floor seems to be right around eight points in this series, so asking for 9.5 in a do-or-die game for the Pacers at home where Nesmith has played better all season does not seem like asking too much.

He has hit this line in two of the five games of the series and again, two that he missed were complete blowouts where his minutes were shortened. With Nesmith being the primary defender on Jalen Brunson, his minutes should be secure and he should be able to hit double digits in the scoring department for the third time in this series tonight.

NEW YORK KNICKS VS. INDIANA PACERS GAME 6 Player Prop

Pick: Aaron Nesmith Over 9.5 Points -130 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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