Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction: Can OKC Limit Tyrese Haliburton in Game 1 of NBA Finals?
Tyrese Haliburton has been the playmaker for the Pacers in the postseason. He didn't have success in the two games in the regular season against the Thunder, who have the No. 1 defense. Can he turn it around in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, or will he be shut down by the Thunder yet again? Adam Ronis answers with his Pacers vs. Thunder prediction and prop pick for Game 1.
Adam Ronis - June 5, 2025, 2:45 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadPacers vs. Thunder Prediction: Can OKC Limit Tyrese Haliburton in Game 1 of NBA Finals?
The Thunder enter the NBA Finals as huge favorites over the Pacers after a dominant performance in the Western Conference Finals. Oklahoma City defeated Minnesota in five games, winning three games by at least 15 points. Two of the series the Thunder have played went five games or fewer. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 6.9 assists in the postseason.
The Thunder’s defense is suffocating and they force 18 turnovers per game. The Pacers average less than 13 turnovers per game. Both these teams have been the best in the NBA since January. The Pacers went 34-14 to close the regular season and 12-4 in the postseason. The Thunder are the only team with a better record in that span at 53-13.
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Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 Odds
- Spread: Pacers +9.5 (-108), Thunder -9.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Pacers (+350), Thunder (-450)
- Total: Over 230.5 (-106), Under 230.5 (-114)
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
- Game Time: 8:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
Click here for latest Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 Odds
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 Prediction
Tyrese Haliburton helped lead Indiana to the finals by averaging 18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 9.8 assists in the postseason. He’s had signature moments and averaged 21 points and 10.5 assists in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Knicks.
It’s going to be different against the Thunder. This is by the far the best defense Haliburton has seen in the postseason. The Thunder were No. 1 in points allowed per possession in the regular season and No. 1 in the playoffs.
Oklahoma City allows the second-fewest assists allowed to point guards. The Thunder have done a good job against the top option of the opponent in the postseason and allowed the fourth-fewest assists in the regular season.
Lu Dort did a great job in the regular season of shutting Haliburton down and Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso will make it tough on Haliburton. The team played twice in the regular season with the last one being March 29. Haliburton had four rebounds and three assists in a 132-111 loss in OKC. In the other matchup in Indiana on December 26th, Haliburton had two rebounds and eight assists in a 120-114 loss. He averaged only 16 potential rebounds and assists in those games and a usage rate of 13.5%.
Haliburton has some down games in the postseason, especially in losses and the Thunder are favored by 9.5 points. In the two losses against the Knicks, he had two rebounds and six assists and four rebounds and seven assists. In the one loss against Cleveland, Haliburton had no rebounds and five assists.
The Pacers thrived off turnovers and pushing the ball in transition for easy baskets in previous series. It will be difficult to play that way against the Thunder. There will be an adjustment period to the Thunder defense and Haliburton will struggle in Game 1.
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Under 13.5 Rebounds + Assists (+100) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Pacers vs. Thunder prop odds for NBA Finals Game 1
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