Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction: Can Chet Holmgren, OKC Take Control of NBA Finals in Game 5?
The Thunder rallied from a fourth quarter deficit in Game 4 to even the NBA Finals series at two. Chet Holmgren has played more minutes the last two games and been productive. When he plays at least 30 minutes in the postseason, he is averaging 19.4 points and 9.7 rebounds. What's the prop to cash in on for Holmgren tonight? Adam Ronis delivers his Pacers vs. Thunder prediction for Game 5.
Adam Ronis
| 4 Minute Read
Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction: Can Chet Holmgren, OKC Take Control of NBA Finals in Game 5?
The Thunder saved their season with a 12-1 run over the final 3:20 to pull out a 111-104 win over the Pacers in Game 4 and even the series at two. The Thunder were outscored by 27 points in the fourth quarter through the first three games. The Pacers were in control for most of the game, and led by seven going to the fourth quarter. The Thunder had a 31-17 advantage in the final quarter.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 15 of his 35 points in the fourth quarter for Oklahoma City and 11 of the team’s final 12 points. Jalen Williams scored 27 points and Alex Caruso added 20 points. Neither team has lost consecutive games in the postseason. The Thunder host Game 5 against Indiana on Monday night and hand Indiana back-to-back losses for the first time since early March.
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Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Odds
- Spread: Pacers +9.5 (-108), Thunder -9.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Pacers (+350), Thunder (-425)
- Total: Over 226.5 (-106), Under 226.5 (-114)
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, June 16, 2025
- Game Time: 8:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
Click here for latest Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Odds
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Prediction
It is all about the minutes for Chet Holmgren. If he plays 30 minutes or more, he has a great chance to go over 24.5 points+rebounds. The Thunder center played 24 and 28 minutes in the first two games and had 12 and 21 points+rebounds. The minutes increased in the last two games and it will likely continue.
Holmgren played 35 minutes in Game 3 and had 20 points and 10 rebounds. In Game 4, he played 37 minutes off of one day of rest and had 14 points and 15 rebounds. With two days of rest between the last game and a crucial Game 5, Holmgren should see 35-38 minutes.
Even with Isaiah Hartenstein starting for the first time in Game 4, Holmgren thrived on the boards. Hartenstein only played 21 minutes and was defending more outside the paint, limiting his rebounding chances.
Holmgren has stepped up on the boards with double-digit rebounds the last two games. He has at least 17 rebound chances the last three games, including 20 in Game 4. In the 10 postseason games Holmgren has played at least 30 minutes, he has at least 26 points+rebounds in nine of them. He is averaging 19.4 points and 9.7 rebounds.
With the Pacers playing fast and Holmgren providing good defense, he is the main center most of the time over the last two games. He averaged 12.5 rebounds on 18.5 chances over the last two games. Holmgren has been more aggressive on offense the last two games, getting to the free throw line 15 times.
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Pick
- Pick: Chet Holmgren Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-120) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Pacers vs. Thunder prop odds for NBA Finals Game 5
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