New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers Picks and Prediction: Kawhi Gets a Gift on the Front End of a Back-to-Back
The New Orleans Pelicans (19-42), riding a four-game winning streak and playing their best basketball of the season, travel to Intuit Dome to face the Los Angeles Clippers (27-31) on Sunday, March 1, tipping off at 9:00 PM ET, with Trey Murphy III ruled out for the fifth-plus straight game with a shoulder contusion, Zion Williamson likely out after spraining his ankle in Saturday's Utah win, and Dejounte Murray listed as game-time decision, this matchup puts a shorthanded Pelicans squad playing on the second night of a back-to-back road trip against a Clippers team getting Kawhi Leonard back at full health after he sat out Thursday's loss to Minnesota, as New Orleans arrives as an 8.5-point road underdog carrying one of the best cover records in the league as a big dog while the Clippers fight to stay relevant in the Western Conference playoff race at home in a spot that looks tailor-made for Kawhi to take over.
OC Staff - March 1, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
3 Minute ReadNew Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers Picks and Prediction: Kawhi Gets a Gift on the Front End of a Back-to-Back
Pelicans vs Clippers Recent Performance
New Orleans enters at 19-42, but the last two weeks look nothing like that record. The Pelicans have gone 5-2 in their last seven, including back-to-back road wins over Utah this week, with Saddiq Bey posting a 42-point night Thursday and the team following it up with a 115-105 win Saturday. Bey, averaging 17.2 points per game on the year, has quietly become the offensive focal point in Murphy's absence and is giving this group legitimate scoring punch. The Pelicans also rank 4-1 ATS in their last five games, and against the Clippers specifically, they've gone 6-0 against the spread across their last six head-to-head matchups.
The catch is that tonight is the second night of a back-to-back after a cross-country flight from Salt Lake City, without their two leading scorers. Murphy scores 22.1 per night and Zion averages 21.9. If both sit, that's roughly 44 points of production redistributed to a rotation that struggled to create against Milwaukee without those guys less than two weeks ago.
Los Angeles enters with the opposite schedule situation. The Clippers went 4-6 in their last ten, losing three in a row including an 88-94 home loss to Minnesota Thursday. That skid has them squarely in play-in territory, but Sunday's opponent presents the kind of spot where LA can reset. No back-to-back pressure, Leonard rested all week, facing a depleted visitor on the front end of their own home back-to-back Monday against Golden State. Kawhi averaged 29.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.8 steals across his ten appearances in February. A rested Kawhi against a tired, short-handed road team is a get-right game if there ever was one.
Pelicans vs Clippers Head to Head
New Orleans leads the season series 1-0, though that prior meeting featured different roster compositions. The Pelicans have owned the Clippers against the number, going 6-0 ATS in their last six matchups, 5-0 of those as road underdogs at Intuit Dome specifically. The historical ATS sample for Pelicans as dogs of 8.5 or more stands at 16-8 on the season, one of the more consistent underdog cover marks in the NBA. LA is 6-3 ATS in the nine games this year where they've been favored by 8.5 or more.
The talent gap and the injury gap push in the same direction tonight. Prior cover trends are worth noting, but the situational factors are the story in a spot this lopsided.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: Gulf Coast Sports, Pelicans+, KTLA 5, FanDuel Sports Network Southern California, NBA League Pass
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Pelicans vs Clippers Odds
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Pelicans vs Clippers Team News
The Pelicans come in severely undermanned. Murphy (right shoulder contusion) has been out since the All-Star break and remains sidelined with no clear return timeline. Zion, who sprained his ankle Saturday in Utah, is unlikely to play, which removes nearly 44 combined points per game from New Orleans' starting lineup. Murray is listed as game-time decision after sitting out Saturday's Jazz game for reconditioning purposes, just one week into his return from a torn Achilles. Yves Missi returned from a calf strain Saturday and played 12 minutes off the bench. Micah Peavy is also available. Bryce McGowens draws the start again with Murray's status unclear, and Saddiq Bey, Jeremiah Fears, and Derik Queen carry the bulk of the offensive responsibility. That is a solid B-tier rotation, not one built to compete with a healthy Kawhi on the road on no sleep.
For the Clippers, Leonard is back and healthy after sitting out Thursday's loss to Minnesota, and Ty Lue confirmed he'll be on a minutes restriction given Monday's back-to-back against Golden State. That limitation matters, but Kawhi in 30 minutes against this Pelicans group is still a massive mismatch. Darius Garland remains out with a toe injury, expected to debut Monday, so Kobe Sanders runs point again tonight. John Collins, who has missed two straight with head and neck soreness after a fall, is listed as questionable but trending toward playing. Bradley Beal is out for the season. Even without a full roster, the Clippers have Kawhi healthy and facing the cleanest possible schedule advantage.
Prediction: Clippers 117, Pelicans 105
Kawhi goes for 30-plus with room to spare. The Clippers' deliberate pace (29th in the league at 100 possessions per game) grinds down a Pelicans group running on fumes from back-to-back road games, and without Murphy or Zion to generate offense in the half-court, New Orleans leans on Bey and a patchwork rotation that can hang around but cannot sustain long runs. LA pulls away in the third, the Pelicans make it respectable in the fourth when Lue rests Kawhi, and the final margin lands in double digits. The spread is 8.5. The Clippers cover.
Best Bet: Clippers -8.5 (-114) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Covering 8.5 requires the Clippers to beat a Pelicans team playing their second game in two nights, on the road, without their top two scorers, against a rested Kawhi Leonard. New Orleans has been excellent ATS as a big underdog this year, 16-8, but those covers came with a more functional roster. The version of this team that's available tonight, missing Murphy (22.1 PPG) and likely Zion (21.9 PPG) and possibly Murray, scores well below their 115.1 season average. The Clippers give up only 112.2 points per game, ninth in the league. Bey had a career night Thursday, but relying on that kind of production twice in three days on the road strains credulity.
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