Top 5 NBA Playoff Picks for Friday, May 1st - Finding Value with Reed Sheppard, Austin Reaves Playoff Props
The Wolf continues for the NBA Playoffs on Friday, May 1st, with several crucial elimination games on the docket. Can the Rockets and Pistons survive, and will the Cavs eliminate Raptors on the road? Capitalize with The Wolf's top 5 playoff props for Friday night.
The Wolf - May 1, 2026, 9:45 AM EDT
3 Minute ReadTop 5 NBA Betting Picks: Targeting Reed Sheppard, Austin Reaves in Friday's NBA Playoff Action
The first night of May brings three elimination games and no room for soft possessions. Houston is trying to survive Game 6 against the Lakers, Detroit is fighting to force a Game 7 in Orlando, and Cleveland has a chance to finish off Toronto on the road.
Elimination basketball changes the prop board. Rotations shrink, defensive pressure rises, and players either get trusted or exposed. The Wolf is targeting the spots where pressure should shape usage, pace and role.
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The Wolf Top 5 Betting Picks - Friday, May 1st
1. Reed Sheppard – Under 15.5 Points (-108) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 66.63%
- Implied Probability: 51.81%
- EV: 28.6%
- Trend: Under in 6 of last 10
Houston needs answers in Game 6, but that does not automatically mean more clean scoring for Sheppard. The Lakers have tightened up as the series has gone on, and elimination games usually push offense toward the primary options. Sheppard can still impact the game as a passer and spacer, but this scoring number asks too much for his current role.
2. Paolo Banchero – Over 23.5 Points (-102) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 64.54%
- Implied Probability: 50.51%
- EV: 27.79%
- Trend: Over in 3 of last 10
Orlando has a chance to close out Detroit at home, and that means Banchero should be central to everything. The Pistons are fighting to extend the series, but late-game playoff offense usually runs through stars who can create their own shot. The trend is modest, but the role is massive, and this is a game where Orlando needs its best player to press the advantage.
3. Anthony Black – Under 2.5 Assists (+101) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 63.42%
- Implied Probability: 49.75%
- EV: 27.47%
- Trend: Under in 6 of last 10
If Detroit forces a Game 7, it likely starts with making Orlando’s secondary creators uncomfortable. Black has stayed under this line in 6 of his last 10, and playoff half-court possessions make assist accumulation harder. At plus money, The Wolf likes fading a role that depends heavily on teammate shot-making.
4. Austin Reaves – Under 23.5 Points (-118) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 68.57%
- Implied Probability: 54.05%
- EV: 26.85%
- Trend: Under in 6 of last 10
The Lakers can eliminate Houston in Game 6, but Reaves does not need to carry the scoring load for that to happen. With the Rockets fighting for their season, defensive attention should ramp up and possessions should get more physical. Reaves can still contribute as a connector, but this number sits high for a closeout environment where the Lakers can spread usage.
5. Evan Mobley – Under 1.5 Blocks (-109) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 66.26%
- Implied Probability: 52.36%
- EV: 26.56%
- Trend: Under in 8 of last 10
Cleveland has a chance to finish off Toronto on the road, and Mobley’s defensive impact will matter even if it does not show up in the blocks column. The Raptors can pull him away from the rim and force him to defend in space, limiting clean block chances. This is a low-frequency stat where the recent trend and matchup both point to the under.
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