Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NBA Playoffs Second Round Odds
The Philadelphia 76ers walk into Madison Square Garden riding the kind of momentum only a 3-1 comeback can generate, while a rested Knicks team has been waiting all week for round two. New York opened at 8.5 and the line has already shed a full point toward Philly, telling you the sharps respect what just happened in Boston. Let's check out the odds and best bet for this Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks prediction on May 4, 2026.
OC Staff - May 4, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadPhiladelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Prediction: Odds, Best Bet, and Best Prop for Game 1
Joel Embiid put up 34 points and 12 rebounds in a Game 7 win on the road in Boston, and the way the Sixers got there is rewriting how the rest of the East should see them. Down 3-1 to the defending Eastern Conference champs, Philly ripped off three straight to take the series, the first time the franchise has done that in its history. Embiid is averaging 28 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists through four playoff games, all on the heels of an emergency appendectomy in early April. The numbers are loud, but the eye test on the man drawing Hakeem Olajuwon comparisons says he's the best player in this matchup.
The Knicks are favored by 7.5 with the total at 212.5, and you can find the moneyline anywhere from -290 to -298 depending on the book. Sportsbooks opened New York at 8.5 with a 213.5 total before the spread shaved a full point on action toward Philly. The cleanest betting angle here lives in the spread market itself, since the road team won every regular season meeting and covered each one to boot. Layer in the Knicks going 1-5 ATS in their last six home dates against Philly and the line tells a different story than it does at first glance.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Recent Results
Coach Nick Nurse has the Sixers playing the cleanest basketball of their season at the worst possible time for the rest of the East. Tyrese Maxey dropped 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists in the close-out game, and rookie VJ Edgecombe added 23 points on five made threes to put a bow on the upset. Paul George logged heavy minutes through the elimination stretch and stayed steady as a two-way connector. The starting five of Embiid, Maxey, George, Edgecombe, and Kelly Oubre Jr. is the deepest top-end group the Sixers have rolled out in years.
New York closed the Hawks series with the most lopsided playoff win in franchise history, a 140-89 dismantling that featured a record 47-point halftime lead. Jalen Brunson averaged 26.3 points on 56.9% true shooting, and Karl-Anthony Towns piled up 18.7 points with multiple triple-doubles in the round. OG Anunoby quietly had the best series of his Knicks tenure at 21.5 points per game while drilling open threes off the catch. Hart, Bridges, McBride, and Mitchell Robinson all walked into round two with legs fresh from a series that ended early.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Head To Head
These franchises are running back their 11th playoff meeting with the Sixers holding a 6-4 series edge dating to the 1980s. The last matchup came in 2024 when New York won in six, a series Embiid played through Bell's palsy and a knee that was still recovering from surgery. He still averaged a 49.5 point-rebound-assist combo across those six games, the highest mark of any player in that postseason. The roster around him is completely different now and arguably the best supporting cast he's had in his MVP era.
The regular season matchup played out as one of the strangest splits all year, with both teams going 0-2 at home and 2-0 on the road. Embiid posted 32 points per game across the two regular season meetings while shooting 50% from three. The Knicks took both games in Philly with Brunson and Towns clicking together on offense, while the Sixers won both at MSG with full health on their side. A 2-2 split tells you nothing about who has the edge, but the road sweeps suggest home court might mean less in this matchup than the line implies.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: NBC, Peacock, NBA League Pass
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Odds
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Team News
Embiid is listed as probable with a right hip contusion he picked up when Maxey accidentally fell into his legs late in Game 7. The hip designation matters because it's not the surgically repaired knee that has been the bigger long-term concern, and Embiid told reporters after Game 7 he feels "amazing." Maxey is fully available despite a finger tendon strain on his right hand, which has not slowed him down through any of the seven Boston games. George is off the report entirely after carrying heavy minutes through the close-out stretch.
For the Knicks, the rotation is essentially clean and rested heading into Game 1. Brunson averages 30 points per game at MSG over his last five home appearances and cleared 27.5 in four of those five. Towns is coming off a regular season where he led the Association with 56 double-doubles, then added two more triple-doubles in round one. Mitchell Robinson and the two-big lineups are New York's main answer for an Embiid-led Sixers offense that demands rim protection on every possession.
Prediction: Knicks 110, Sixers 105
The Knicks are getting the rest edge, the home court, and a full week of prep on a Sixers team that just spent two physical weeks fighting Boston. Even with all of that working in New York's favor, the spread is priced for a comfortable Knicks win that the regular season series and recent ATS history disagree with. Both teams play near the bottom of the league in pace, which keeps the projected total grounded in the low 210s and lines up almost perfectly with the 212.5 number. Playoff defense usually nudges totals down another tick from regular season norms, and the Sixers have hit the Under in 10 of their last 12 against top-10 scoring defenses.
The bet here is on a closer game than the market is pricing, with Embiid forcing New York into the two-big lineup and Maxey getting his usual offensive workload. Brunson and crowd energy carry the Knicks home, but the margin stays inside the spread cushion.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Best Bet
- Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 (-110) Click here to get the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Joel Embiid Over 26.5 Points (-117) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI likes Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 for Game 1. New York is 1-5 ATS in their last six home dates against the Sixers, a stretch that includes plenty of fully healthy Knicks rosters. The spread already shaved a full point off the open and there's enough cushion for Philly to lose by a couple buckets and still cash.
It also points to value on Joel Embiid Over 26.5 Points. Embiid put up 28 points per game across the Boston series and capped it with a 34-point Game 7 in elimination. He averaged 32 points per night in two regular season meetings with the Knicks while shooting 50% from three, the kind of matchup history that shows up in projections fast.
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