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The Baylor Bears dropped a heartbreaker in OT to the Houston Cougars on Saturday. Can RayJ Dennis and the Bears bounce back on the road in Fort Worth? Ben Rajavuori analyzes this showdown and provides his pick against the spread for Baylor vs. TCU.
ANALYSIS

Baylor vs. TCU: Can RayJ Dennis, Bears Avoid Three Straight Losses Tonight Against Horned Frogs?

The Baylor Bears travel to Fort Worth, Texas, tonight to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. Baylor moved down four spots in the rankings and dropped to number 15 after losing to BYU and Houston last week. They will look to avenge those losses with a road game against the Horned Frogs tonight. TCU split their games last week, losing by one on the road at Texas Tech and then winning at home against Cincinnati on Saturday 75–57. Baylor and TCU are neck and neck in the Big 12 with both teams entering this game with an 8–6 record in conference play and 19–8 for both teams overall. TCU is a slight home favorite of 2.5 points tonight. Can Baylor bounce back?

BAYLOR VS. TCU DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

  • Date: February 26, 2024
  • Game Time: 9:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

BAYLOR VS. TCU ODDS

  • Spread: Baylor +3 (-110), TCU -3 (-105)
  • Total Odds: O/U 148.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline Odds: Baylor (+125), TCU (-139)

BAYLOR VS. TCU Prediction

Baylor has had a tough go lately in the Big 12. They started the game slow against Houston and were able to battle back in the second half by scoring 44 points against the number one defense in the country, forcing overtime. They were out-scored in overtime, however, and fell by six points. Combined with a tough seven-point loss at BYU, they need a win badly to get back in shape and keep their ranking. Baylor has had one of the toughest schedules in the country, ranking seventh in strength of schedule per Kenpom. They have had some extremely close losses in conference play on the road, like their four-point overtime loss against Kansas State, a two-point loss on the road against Texas, and a three-point road loss against Kansas. Baylor has played well on the road this season overall, as they are 5–2 against the spread on the road, even though they are just 3–4 straight up. TCU has the same record but with a different story. They have had a slightly easier schedule, especially in non-conference play, and they have fewer marquee wins on the season at home. Their biggest win of the season was a home win against Houston, which is a great win for their résumé, but they have yet to play and beat other elite teams in the conference at home. They lost to Iowa State and Texas at home, while beating West Virginia and Cincinnati. Baylor will pose a threat similar to the former two and can give TCU their money's worth in Schollmaier Arena tonight. In the first meeting this season between these two, TCU stole the game on the road playing in Waco. That game went to triple overtime, with TCU eventually winning 105–102. What was very uncharacteristic of Baylor in that game was their three-point shooting. Baylor has consistently been one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country this season, but in that game, they shot just 5–22 from three, or 22%. They do not have too many games like that, as they enter this game with the second-highest three-point percentage in the country at 40.3% as a team. They have multiple guys that can drain it from deep like Jalen Bridges, RayJ Dennis, Jayden Nunn, and Langston Love. They have a plethora of deep scoring threats, and I expect their three-point shooting to improve a lot in the second contest of the season. Therefore, I am going with Baylor to avenge their loss from earlier this season and beat TCU on the road to avoid dropping three straight games.

BAYLOR VS. TCU PICK

Pick: Baylor +2.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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