Colorado State vs. Virginia Prediction: Can Isaiah Stevens, Rams Dominate in First Four?
Virginia and Colorado State are two teams with very contrasting styles. Who has the edge in this 10th seeded First Four matchup between two of the last four teams to get an at large bid to the tournament? Let’s break it down.
Joey Ruiz - March 19, 2024, 4:06 PM EDT
7 minColorado State vs. Virginia Prediction: Can Isaiah Stevens, Rams Dominate in First Four?
Tony Bennett and his Virginia squad enters this NCAA tournament not playing their best ball at the moment. They enter this matchup with Colorado State coming off an overtime loss to NC State in an ACC tournament in which they played two games, both of which went to overtime against lesser talented opponents as Virginia was the betting favorite in both of those games.
COLORADO STATE VS. VIRGINIA DATE, TIME, WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: March 19, 2024
- Game Time: 9:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: TruTV
COLORADO STATE VS. VIRGINIA PREDICTION
In the Cavaliers last nine games, they are just 4-5 with their four wins coming against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest (who missed the tournament), and Boston College (twice). Virginia also needed overtime to beat a fairly bad Boston College team in the first round of the ACC tournament and followed that performance up with an overtime loss against NC State, who eventually went on to win the ACC tournament.
This Virginia team plays with the same style as they always have. They run their offense at an absolute snails pace as they are the second slowest team in the country by adjusted tempo, but they also have one of the best defenses in the nation as Tony Bennett’s Pack Line defense continues to stifle opponents year in and year out.
The difference with this Virginia team compared to some of the Virginia teams of the past, is that they do not have a go to impact player who can get you 15 to 20 points per night, no questions asked. They very much score by committee and rely on different guys each night to propel them to wins, and when plays breakdown, they simply don’t have that go to scorer who can create offense off the bounce.
Virginia was also a bit of a home team merchant this season as they played extremely well at home, but did not fair so well on the road or on neutral courts this season. Earlier in the season, the Cavaliers were blown out by Wisconsin on a neutral court, by 20+ points and barely skated by a really bad West Virginia team as they were only able to defeat them mountaineers by two points on a neutral.
Virginia played five total neutral court games this season and went three and two in those contests with wins over Florida (by three), Boston College (in overtime), and West Virginia (by two). Their two losses came to Wisconsin and NC State.
On the other side, this Colorado State Rams team has played extremely well on neutral courts this season. Isaiah Stevens and Colorado State went 5-1 in neutral court games this year with wins over Colorado, Creighton (by 20+), Nevada, and Boston College by double digits (a team Virginia struggled with multiple times). Colorado state’s lone neutral court loss. This season came to New Mexico in the Mountain West Tournament and the Lobos have proven that they are a very potent and dangerous team as they also find themselves in this year‘s NCAA tournament.
The bottom line to me for this match up is that Virginia has simply not shown the ability to score enough points away from their home floor to beat above average offensive teams or teams with exceptional guard play, like Colorado State possesses. Colorado State also played a much tougher non-conference schedule this season as they are ranked in the top 65 in both non-conference and overall strength of schedule, while the Cavaliers are ranked in the 200s in their non-conference strength of schedule.
Overall, I believe Colorado State is the more talented team, and is more prepared for this game than Virginia who played in extremely weak schedule, and did not perform very well against the meat and potatoes of the better teams on their ACC schedule. With that being said, I am rolling with Colorado State ML at -130 for 2U as my most confident college basketball play of the day to kick off this year’s NCAA Tournament.
COLORADO STATE VS. VIRGINIA Betting Pick
2U Colorado State ML -130 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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