McNeese vs. Gonzaga Betting Pick: Can Anton Watson, Bulldogs Start Hot in Round of 64?
McNeese vs. Gonzaga Betting Pick: Can Anton Watson, Bulldogs Start Hot in Round of 64?
The Gonzaga Bulldogs meet the McNeese State Cowboys in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the five seed in this matchup, with the McNeese State Cowboys coming in as the 12 seed looking to pull off the upset. McNeese State is a popular upset pick in this year's tournament, as the Cowboys are 30–3 coming into this matchup. Additionally, Gonzaga does not appear to be the same elite Bulldogs team from most years. As such, the line is a respectable -6.5 points in favor of the Bulldogs. What should we expect in this game?
MCNEESE STATE VS. GONZAGA START TIME, WHERE TO WATCH, AND ODDS
- Date: Thursday, March 21, 2024
- Start Time: 7:25 pm ET
- Where to Watch: TBS
McNeese vs. Gonzaga Prediction
McNeese State had an extremely dominant season, going 17-1 in conference play and 13–2 in non-conference play. On the other side, the Gonzaga Bulldogs went 14–2 in conference play and 11–5 in non-conference play for a record of 25–7 overall. However, strength of schedule is something we have to factor in here. McNeese State did not play a single team in the top 25 all season and only played one quad-one game all year.
On the other side, Gonzaga played five teams in the top 25, going 2-3, and also played nine quad-one games this season, going 3–6. Overall, Gonzaga ranked 27th in non-conference strength of schedule and 107th overall, while McNeese State ranked 75th in non-conference strength of schedule and just 338th in overall strength of schedule. I think too many people are getting hung up by McNeese State's 30–3 record and thinking they are like the FAU of last year. However, there are stark differences in the strength of schedule and the overall make-up of those two teams, as McNeese State has a much worse defense.
They rank just 87th in defense efficiency per Kenpom, and a large part of their defense comes from forcing turnovers, which will not find them success against Gonzaga, who ranks 16th-best in the nation in turnover percentage on offense. The Bulldogs take good care of the ball and do not cough up turnovers, which means McNeese State will have to contest shots and play good perimeter defense, which is something they have not done well this season. The way I am attacking this game is by taking Gonzaga in the first half. Gonzaga has been a strong first-half team and when you look at their losses against big teams this year, they played much better in the first half before choking it away in the second half. A prime example of this is when they were leading Purdue at halftime earlier in the season 35–30 before choking the lead and losing by ten at the end of the game.
They did this in multiple games this season and have been much stronger in the first frame of the game. McNeese State has been the opposite, as they get stronger as the game goes on, so I think Gonzaga can jump out to an early lead here in the first half. With Gonzaga being only -6.5 points on the full game spread, we can get the first half spread at just 3.5 points. This is a line that should be easy to cover for the Bulldogs tonight.
McNeese vs. Gonzaga Betting Pick
Pick: Gonzaga First Half -3.5 -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.