Grand Canyon vs Alabama Betting Pick: Can the Antelopes Cover Against Mark Sears, Crimson Tide in Round of 32?
Grand Canyon vs Alabama Betting Pick: Can the Antelopes Cover Against Mark Sears, Crimson Tide in Round of 32?
The Alabama Crimson Tide and Grand Canyon Antelopes meet in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to decide who will go on to face the Tar Heels in the Sweet 16 next weekend. The Tide rolled past Charleston in the first round, putting up a tournament-high 109 points in round one. The Antelopes passed a big test in round one against a very good defense in St. Mary's, topping the Gaels 75-66. The Lopes are now 6.5-point underdogs against the high-flying tide in the round of 32. What should we expect?
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GRAND CANYON VS. ALABAMA DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: March 24, 2024
- Start Time: 7:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: TBS\
Grand Canyon vs. Alabama Prediction
I expected the Lopes to struggle in the first round against St. Mary's because of the difference in style. St. Mary's had a very good defense, but the Lopes were able to break through it with their physical play, shooting 36 free throws. Getting to the line often has been a theme for the Lopes, as they rank third in the nation in free throw-to-field goal ratio. They rank fourth in the country in point distribution of free throws as opposed to two-pointers and threes. Drawing contact is something that the Lopes do very well, and they can weaponize that against Alabama tonight as well.
The Tide rank 320th in the country in free throw attempts allowed and foul opponents often. While this gives the Lopes more free shots, it also stops the clock and disrupts the transition rhythm Alabama loves to force. Alabama loves to score in tranasition, but the more free throws the Lopes get, the more they stop the clock and can set up their half-court defense from free throws.
Another issue in this game for Alabama is their tempo and lack of defense. It's not an uncommonly known fact that the Tide are an offensively-based team, and they can easily put up 100 in any game, like they did in the first round. However, they can also give up 100 points pretty easily, as they have also done this year. Charleston put up 96 in the first round, but Alabama did enough offensively to advance. Alabama shot 56% from three in that game and shot 13-23 from three overall. That's not sustainable in a tournament setting against the better teams once you get out of the first round.
I do not love Alabama's style for this tournament. They do not force many turnovers, foul too much, and rely on getting hot in transition to win games. The Lopes draw fouls at one of the highest rates in the country and can stay in this game at the line. Getting 6.5 points in this spot is a gift. Back the Lopes to keep this game close, get some players in foul trouble, and potentially even advance to the Sweet 16.
Grand Canyon vs. Alabama Betting Pick
Pick: Grand Canyon +6.5 -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.