San Diego State vs. UConn Prediction: Can Aztecs Shock Donovan Clingan, Huskies in Sweet 16?
San Diego State vs. UConn Prediction: Can Aztecs Shock Donovan Clingan, Huskies in Sweet 16?
UConn appears to be an absolute freight train at the moment. They demolished Stetson by nearly 40 points in the first round and made quick work of Northwestern in the second round as they led by double digits for nearly the entirety of that game. The addition of Cam Spencer and the emergence of Tristen Newton in the back court has made things very easy for this UConn squad on the offensive side of the ball.
SAN DIEGO STATE VS. UCONN DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: March 28, 2024
- Start Time: 7:39 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: TBS, truTV
SAN DIEGO STATE VS. UCONN PREDICTION
No team gets better offensive looks than the Huskies and that is reflected in their offensive production as they are currently ranked second in overall adjusted offensive efficiency, fifth in offensive effective field goal percentage, and fourth in offensive two point percentage. That last statistic is largely influenced by their big man in the middle, Donovan Clingan.
There is an argument to be had over who is the best or most important player on this UConn team but in my humble opinion, it is without a doubt Clingan. He is the anchor on defense and a matchup nightmare on offense. He is a load in the paint standing at 7'2 and is excellent at finishing around the rim evidenced by his field goal percentage this season which is an astounding 65%. Clingan is also an elite defender who has one of the best defensive +/- in the entire NCAA when he is on versus off the court.
One could argue this Aztecs team may not be as good as last year's NCAA National runner up team, but I think they are on the same level if not better than that squad. This San Diego State team is a hard-nosed team who is elite defensively. The Aztecs enter this matchup ranked 10th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, 26th in defensive effective field goal percentage, and 23rd in defensive three point percentage. They are in the top 100 in pretty much every major defensive category, and they hang their hot on defense.
On the offensive side of the ball, they have struggled at times, but they run everything through their emerging star, Jaedon LeDee. LeDee averages 21 points per game on an impressive 57/43/74 slash line as he is one of the most imposing and improved players in the entire country this season. LeDee has the quickness to go around slower bigs and the size to shoot over or power through smaller guards who are switched onto him.
Another thing this San Diego State offense does really well is draw fouls. They are very physical and do not settle for perimeter jump shots. 21.4% of the Aztecs offense comes from free throws which is 57th in the nation. If there is one thing this UConn defense struggles with, it is guarding without fouling. The Huskies are ranked 167th in the nation in defensive foul rate so the charity stripe could be what keeps the Aztecs in this game.
This is also a rematch of last year's championship where UConn pretty much embarrassed San Diego State so there has to be a huge revenge factor. I also do not believe in fading the public simply because underdogs or a team may be 'due' per se but this is a spot where San Diego State and the points actually makes plausible sense.
They have the physicality and defensive-mindedness to defend this high-powered Huskies team and also no one in the world is even giving San Diego State a chance. They have a ton of experience and a star in LeDee who could go off for a huge performance to keep this game close. With that being said, I am rolling with San Diego State +12.5 at -110 for 1.5U as one of my most confident college basketball plays of the day for tonight's action as I think the Aztecs shock some people and make this game closer than most think it will be.
SAN DIEGO STATE VS. UCONN PICK
1.5U San Diego State +12.5 -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.