New Mexico vs. Marquette Prediction, Pick, Odds for March Madness
New Mexico looks to turn around the fortunes of the Mountain West in their March Madness First Round matchup against Marquette tonight. Do they have the potential with the Golden Eagles' recent struggles, or will Marquette keep the conference's bad luck going? Christian Odjakjian gives his thoughts, analysis, and betting pick for this New Mexico vs. Marquette March Madness Round of 64 piece.
Christian Odjakjian - March 21, 2025, 4:30 PM EDT
4 minNew Mexico vs. Marquette Prediction, Pick, Odds for March Madness
No. 7 seed Marquette and No. 10 New Mexico face off tonight in Cleveland.
Marquette has struggled a bit since the beginning of February, going 5-7 in that stretch. However, this is still a really good basketball team that was great in non-conference play, beating Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Georgia.
Kam Jones is one of the best guards in the country, and like a typical Marquette team, this group is elite in the turnover war (8th nationally in offensive TO%, 20th defensively). Shaka Smart’s guys also have a very specific tempo identity — playing fast offensively (24th) while slowing opponents down on the other end (359th in defensive average possession length).
New Mexico is similar to Marquette in that they love to play fast offensively (5th in tempo) and are led by a star guard in Donovan Dent. Non-conference wins over great defensive teams like UCLA and VCU show how good these Lobos are. They rely on their defense (19th in KenPom) because their shooting isn’t a strength (175th in eFG%).
New Mexico vs. Marquette Odds
- ML: New Mexico +158, Marquette -178
- Spread: New Mexico +4 (-110), Marquette -4 (-110)
- Total: Over 152.5 (-110), Under 152.5 (-105)
New Mexico vs. Marquette Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, March 21, 2025
- Time: 7:25 PM ET
- Where to Watch: TBS
Click here for latest New Mexico vs. Marquette Odds
New Mexico vs. Marquette Prediction
A key matchup I like for Marquette is what they can do defensively to New Mexico’s two best players. Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross are tough, quick, and physical defenders who are also bigger than Dent. If Marquette can make life tough for him in the halfcourt, it’ll throw New Mexico’s offense out of rhythm.
The other challenge is physical big man Nelly Junior Joseph, who is a load to deal with inside. Marquette’s big man Ben Gold has struggled as of late, particularly against St. John’s Zuby Ejiofor in the Big East Tournament.
On paper, Junior Joseph is a mismatch for Marquette, but the Golden Eagles have a strong track record this season against teams with imposing bigs. They’ve beaten Purdue and Trey Kaufman-Renn, Maryland with Derik Queen and Julian Reese, plus Georgia with Asa Newell. Smart’s defense is so connected, and his guys are elite at playing the gaps and rotating. I expect New Mexico to struggle in the halfcourt because of this.
Offensively, I don’t see a reason to believe the Lobos can slow down Kam Jones. Yes, they’re a great defensive team, but Jones is so crafty and thrives in Marquette’s five-out spacing, which gives him room to operate. Speaking of the five-out offense, I think Marquette’s quick attack will cause problems for the physical but slower-footed bigs Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil.
Also, the Mountain West has really been dreadful in the Tournament, and that bias is creeping in here.
I think Marquette is very capable of neutralizing New Mexico’s two best players and main strengths, and I’m confident in Jones to lead this group to a victory and cover.
New Mexico Lobos vs. Marquette Golden Eagles Pick
Pick: Marquette -4 (-110)
COLLEGE BASKETBALL ODDS & PICKS
- Looking for March Madness odds? We got you covered!
- Need more March Madness picks? Get them all right here.
- Which longshots could go on a deep run? Check the latest Final Four Odds
- Duke has the best odds to win it all for the first time in a decade. Can anyone stop them? Take a look at the complete National Championship odds
