North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest March Madness Odds for First Round

One of the few First Round matchups in the 2025 NCAA Tournament has an 11-seed favored to beat a six-seed, when the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Ole Miss Rebels in the South Region on Friday afternoon. After a controversial qualifier into March Madness' First Four play-in game against San Diego State to advance as an 11-seed, UNC torched the Aztecs 95-68, making a statement to their critics.

Ole Miss went 22-11 in the SEC, undoubtedly the most loaded Power Four conference in college basketball this season. Yet the Rebels have lost two of their last three games, including five of their last eight. They are coming off of a five-point loss to top-ranked Auburn in the SEC Tournament. Recent notable wins include beating Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

Here is NCAAB handicapper Matt MacKay's favorite bet to place in a highly-anticipated First Round matchup on Friday afternoon between Ole Miss and North Carolina, using the latest odds. Follow Matt's X account for more NCAAB betting insight and free picks during March Madness.

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North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Odds and Betting Lines

• ML: North Carolina -130, Ole Miss +110
• Spread: North Carolina -2.0 (-115), Ole Miss +2.0 (-105)
• Total: Over 156.0 (-110), Under 156.0 (-110)

North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21, 2025
• Time: 4:05 PM ET
• Where to Watch: TNT

Click here for latest Ole Miss vs. North Carolina Odds

North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Prediction

North Carolina has elevated its play on both ends of the court since a mid-February blowout loss to Clemson. The Tar Heels, led by a slew of guards, including RJ Davis, Seth Trimble, Elliot Cadeau, and Ian Jackson, have scored 80 or more points in eight of their past 11 games.

Defensively, UNC ranks 188th in defensive rating (105.0), allowing other talented offenses to generate production against the Tar Heels. Yet their dynamic scoring, primarily from their back court, allows UNC to compete against most high-caliber opponents.

For example, the only two losses UNC has since February 10th are to No. 1 Duke. The Tar Heels had opportunities during the regular season finale and ACC Tournament to beat the Blue Devils, however, their defensive deficiencies ultimately cost them in those outings.

Ole Miss will be an interesting test for UNC on Friday during the First Round of March Madness. The Tar Heels already had to play a high-stakes single-elimination game in the First Four and routed San Diego State's talented defensive core, finishing with 95 points.

The Rebels rank 124th in defensive rating, allowing a 102.7 offensive rating. Their own offensive rating is 110.5 and is primarily generated by G Sean Pedulla, averaging 14.9 points and 3.6 assists per game for Ole Miss. There's a ton of depth on the Rebels' roster, with five other players averaging over 10 points per game this season.

Neither of these teams has a big, dominant front court presence, so it'll be a battle between back courts. North Carolina holds a significant edge in true shooting percentage, ranked 53rd in the nation at 57.8%.

Compare this true shooting percentage metric to Ole Miss, who is 169th at 54.9% this season. It's evident that the Rebels will need to dial up a strong defensive effort to win this First Round game as the higher seed.

Even worse for the Rebels' outlook is ranking 341st in total rebound percentage at 46.8%. North Carolina is 95th in total rebound percentage (52.3%), meaning they'll likely own the glass and give themselves numerous second-chance points against Ole Miss.

There's a reason oddsmakers are laying -2 with an 11-seed in this matchup. Ole Miss did play a much tougher schedule due to their conference, however, UNC is trending up at the right time and has a massive chip on its shoulder from being nationally criticized for making the NCAA Tournament.

A talented scoring team that has extra motivation is definitely a scenario I like investing in during Friday's 16-game NCAA Tournament slate. Let's bet a unit on UNC -2 against Ole Miss to advance to the Second Round this weekend.

North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Pick

Pick: UNC -2.0 (-115)

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