Troy vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Betting Pick for March Madness Round 1

The No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats' journey to an NCAA Championship begins tonight when they take on the No. 14 seed Troy Trojans in this March Madness First Round matchup in Milwaukee.

Kentucky has been awesome in year one under Mark Pope, running beautiful offense (9th in efficiency on KenPom) and playing at a super fast pace (23rd in tempo). The veteran pieces from the portal fit in with each other super well. The two roadblocks for this team have been inconsistent defense (57th KP, 341st in turnover rate) and a case of the injury bug. Kerr Kriisa and Jaxson Robinson have been out for awhile now. Lamont Butler is in line to play tonight, but he’s been in and out of the lineup and doesn’t seem to be his full self.

Head coach Scott Cross brought back most of his team from last year for the eventual Sun Belt Champion Trojans, ranking 10th nationally in minutes continuity. Troy is elite on the offensive glass (6th nationally), and on the defensive end they excel at protecting the rim (28th in 2P% defense) and stealing the basketball (7th in steal%). They do struggle with shooting the rock (339th in 3P%),  taking care of the basketball (334th in turnover rate) and with defensive rebounding (292nd in def rebounding %).

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Troy vs. Kentucky Odds

• ML: Troy +525, Kentucky -630
• Spread: Troy +11.5 (-110), Kentucky -11.5 (-105)
• Total: Over 152.5 (+100), Under 152.5 (-109)

Troy vs. Kentucky Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21, 2025
• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Where to Watch: Paramount+, March Madness Live

Click here for latest Troy vs. Kentucky Odds

Troy vs. Kentucky Prediction

A key thing that I see in this matchup is that the areas in which Troy struggles, aren’t really places where Kentucky excels. The Wildcats don’t force TOs and they aren’t great on the offensive glass (221st in OReb%). Also, Troy is 12th in Haslamatreics NPAR stat (near-proximity attempts) as they really love to get all the way to the rim, and Kentucky isn’t great at protecting it (288th in 2P% defense).

Troy point guard and Sun Belt Player of the Year Tayton Conerway is number one in the country in steal % and 19th in assist rate. He’s a beast on both ends and can make a lot happen off the bounce. Troy’s second leading scorer Myles Rigsby is fantastic at getting downhill as well. And even if the team 3P% is low, all eight key rotation players will shoot it and can knock it down when open. 

Troy is a tough physical team that’s been playing together for awhile and that can cause a lot of problems for Kentucky. Cross is constantly changing defenses which I think can keep this Kentucky offense from going nuclear. While Troy lost by double digits in their three toughest matchups this year at Arkansas, at Oregon, and at Houston, they were up 1 at half at Arkansas, and held Houston to 62 points.

Kentucky’s zoom offense is really tough to guard. Otega Oweh has been a monster lately, Koby Brea is one of the nation’s best shooters, and Amari Williams and Andrew Carr could bully Troy’s 6'8" bigs on the interior. And while it doesn’t appear to me that Lamont Butler is fully healthy, he’s a hound guarding the ball and can make Conerway’s life really difficult. Even without a couple key guys out from earlier in the year, the Wildcats still have high-end talent, and if they dictate tempo, their offensive prowess could overwhelm Troy over the course of 40 minutes.

Despite Kentucky’s firepower, I think this Troy team is really tough defensively and has the offensive talent to keep pace if they can hit some threes and get to the free throw line (12th nationally in FT rate the past three weeks). I like the Trojans chances to keep this one close today and give Kentucky a real scare. I’m sprinkling on the moneyline too because this is MARCH!

Troy Trojans vs. Kentucky Wildcats Pick

Pick: Troy +11.5 (-110), sprinkle on ML +500

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