Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, Latest March Madness Odds for Round of 64

No. 10 seed Vanderbilt and No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s face off this afternoon in Cleveland in one of the most interesting matchups of the day.

This iteration of Saint Mary’s is your typical Randy Bennett team — slow and methodical (359th nationally in tempo), elite on both defense (7th on KenPom) and in the rebounding department (2nd in offensive rebound %, 11th in defensive). They won’t blow you away with their offense (172nd in effective FG%), but their disciplined and (arguably) boring style of basketball has led them to a 28-5 record on the year.

In year one under Mark Byington, Vanderbilt surprised a lot of people, getting off to a 13-1 start and clawing their way to an 8-10 record in the SEC. Byington brought his signature fast-paced style (64th in tempo) to Nashville and put together an undersized (nobody over 6'8") but dynamic roster. Vandy is great in the turnover department (30th offensive TO rate, 47th defensive) but struggles with frequent foul trouble (314th in opponent free throw rate) and guarding the 3-point line (336th in opponent 3P%).

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Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's Odds

• ML: Vanderbilt +170, Saint Mary's -190
• Spread: Vanderbilt +4.5 (-110), Saint Mary's -4.5 (-105)
• Total: Over 136.5 (-105), Under 136.5 (-110)

Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: March 21, 2024
• Game Time: 3:15 PM ET
• Where to Watch: truTV, Max, March Madness Live

Click here for latest Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's Odds

Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's Prediction

At first, I thought backing the Gaels was the obvious choice. St. Mary’s has a clear advantage in the size department with 6'10", 250 lb. Mitchell Saxen and 7'1", 275 lb. Harry Wessels, who Vanderbilt could really struggle to contain in the post and on the offensive glass. The Gaels should be able to slow the tempo, make this a halfcourt game, and win it by crushing the Commodores on the interior.

But there are ways for Vanderbilt to overcome these weaknesses. This includes forcing Gus Marciulionis into turnovers, packing the paint to disrupt entry passes to Saxen and Wessels, and forcing the Gaels to win from the outside (just shot 0-16 from deep in the WCC Championship). On paper, these things are quite the task, but here’s what gives me confidence in Vanderbilt.

In SEC play, and while these teams aren’t carbon copies of St. Mary’s, Vandy was able to beat the nation’s best offensive rebounding team (on the road too) in Texas A&M, plus arguably the most physical team in the country in Tennessee. Byington’s squad knows the challenge the Gaels present, and they've already shown they can compete with and beat teams that outmatch them in size and rebounding. This Vanderbilt team reminds me of Jim Larrañaga’s recent successful Miami teams in that way — they just find a way to overcome their vulnerabilities as a small ball unit, and cause problems by leaning on their strengths.

Those strengths? Getting scrappy. Forcing steals and playing fast. Enabling guards like Jason Edwards and AJ Hoggard to play with confidence, attack the paint, and when the defense collapses, find shooters like Tyler Nickel (41% from deep this season). Saint Mary’s protects the rim well (11th in 2P defense) and runs teams off the three-point line (6th lowest 3P rate allowed) with their signature drop coverage, forcing opponents into difficult mid-range looks. Their slow-footed bigs backpedaling and forcing mid-range shots and floaters, and while that strategy works against most teams, Edwards and Hoggard have the skillsets to be able to capitalize.

Vandy’s undersized bigs Devin McGlockton and Jaylen Carey are definitely going to have to be great on the glass and stay out of foul trouble, which is a tough task against Saint Mary’s. But we've seen it before from them. And if the ‘Dores can generate turnovers and push off misses, I think they have a great shot at finding enough offense to keep this one close and potentially win.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Pick

Pick: Vanderbilt +4.5

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