Xavier vs. Illinois Prediction, Best Bet, March Madness Odds for Round of 64

A quality First Round matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament awaits between six-seed Illinois and 11-seed Xavier on Friday night. The Musketeers rallied to beat Texas in their First Four play-in game earlier this week, igniting the "home" crowd with a flurry of shots and three-pointers, stunning the Longhorns in Dayton. The Musketeers are carrying a ton of momentum into their First Round game against Illinois. The Fighting Illini are among the best offenses in the country, ranked 37th in offensive rating (115.0). Illinois has beaten quality conference opponents like UCLA, Michigan, and Purdue during the final seven games of their regular season schedule.

Here is Matt MacKay's favorite bet to place during the second day of March Madness in a First Round matchup featuring Illinois and Xavier, using the latest odds. Follow Matt's X account for more NCAAB betting insight and free picks during March Madness.

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Xavier vs. Illinois Odds

• Spread: Xavier +3.0 (-110), Illinois -3.0 (-110),
• Moneyline: Xavier (+130), Illinois (-155)
• Total: Over 161.0 (-110), Under 161.0 (-110)

Xavier vs. Illinois Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21, 2025
• Time: 9:45 PM ET
• How to Watch: CBS

Click here for latest Xavier vs. Illinois Odds

Xavier vs. Illinois Prediction

Oddsmakers are laying -3 with Illinois, while the Total is set to an even 161.0. This is among the highest Totals released during the 2025 NCAA Tournament so far.

There's a reason why we're getting that high of a line in this six-seed vs. 11-seed matchup. Illinois has a top-40 offense in terms of offensive rating, while averaging 83.8 points per game to sit 11th in this metric under head coach Brad Underwood.

Xavier is 84th in offensive rating (111.7), however, they are significantly better than the Fighting Illini in true shooting percentage, ranked 38th at 58.4%. Illinois is 91st at 56.3% in true shooting percentage, meaning the Musketeers are a more efficient offense.

Xavier is led by head coach Sean Miller, who has a ton of experience in big game environments like March Madness. The Musketeers are led by F Zach Freemantle, averaging 17.2 points per game, who came up big late in the win over Texas, drilling three-pointers, mid-range shots, and grabbing key rebounds. G Ryan Conwell is the primary back court contributor for Xavier, averaging 16.7 points per game this season.

Illinois will likely lean on 7'1" C Tomislav Ivisic against Freemantle in the interior on Friday night. Ivisic leads the Fighting Illini in rebounds (7.7 per game), while they have three freshman starters, including Ivisic.

Kasparas Jakucionis is the primary ball handler and scorer for Illinois, averaging 15 points and 4.6 assists per game. He's aided by F Will Riley, G Kylan Boswell, G Tre White, and Ivisic, with all four of them averaging over 10.7 points per game.

Illinois ranks 10th in total rebound percentage at 55.8%, while Xavier is 156th at 51.0% this season. This gives a massive edge to the Fighting Illini in terms of securing second-chance scoring opportunities, while Xavier will have to improve its play on the glass to counter. The Musketeers will also need to remain hyper-efficient shooting from the floor if they wind up losing the rebounding battle.

Illinois plays with a lot of tempo, ranked 19th in pace (72.4). Xavier plays a bit slower with a 69.4 pace score, ranked 118th in the nation. Both will look for scoring opportunities in transition.

The Fighting Illini rank 31st in three-point attempt rate, while Xavier is 220th in this metric. Illinois lives and dies by their three-point shooting. Cold shooting has plagued this offense at various times this season, while it's also been able to separate from other quality opponents when red-hot from beyond the arc.

Xavier's last five losses have been against good Big East teams like two-seed St. John's, including an overtime loss in late January. Other losses were from Creighton, Villanova, and Marquette most recently during an 89-87 loss to the Golden Eagles in the Big East Quarterfinal.

The Musketeers have been heating up from beyond the arc, making 11 or more three-point shots in three of their last five games played. Illinois ranks 115th in defensive rating (102.3) and Xavier is 98th in defensive rating (101.8), meaning both teams are evenly matched in this game.

Xavier has more experience amongst its personnel and are riding more momentum following their 86-80 win over Texas in the First Four play-in game on Wednesday. Illinois has lopsided losses to Rutgers, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Duke, and Maryland since February 5th. Xavier's only has a two-point loss to a quality Marquette team in its last nine games played.

Let's grab the points with the Musketeers and bet a unit on Xavier to cover -3.0 against Illinois during their First Round Midwest Region matchup on Friday night.

Xavier Musketeers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Pick

Pick: Xavier -3.0 (-110)

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