Purdue vs. McNeese State Prediction: Can Braden Smith, Boilermakers End McNeese State Cinderella Run?

Purdue ended High Point's winning streak during a 75-63 win over the Panthers in the Round of 64 on Thursday. Now, the Boilermakers advance to face another red-hot mid-major program, McNeese State, following their win against Clemson. The Cowboys haven't lost a game since February 1st, winning 12 consecutive games, quickly becoming one of the most captivating teams in the Big Dance. McNeese State benefitted from Clemson's ice-cold shooting in the 1st half of their Round of 64 matchup, before holding on late to beat the Tigers by two points. Purdue's offense is a step up in class but McNeese State's confidence and momentum is fully intact ahead of today's 12:15 p.m. ET tip-off.

Matt MacKay's back with his favorite bet to place in an early Round of 32 matchup between Purdue and McNeese State, using the latest odds. Follow Matt's X account for more NCAAB betting insight and free picks during March Madness.

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Purdue vs. McNeese State Odds

• Spread: Purdue -6.5 (-110), McNeese State +6.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Purdue (-270), McNeese State (+220)
• Total: Over 142.5 (-110), Under 142.5 (-110)

Purdue vs. McNeese State Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 22, 2025
• Time: 12:10 PM ET
• How to Watch: CBS

Click here for latest Purdue vs. McNeese State Odds

Purdue vs. McNeese State Prediction

The lines in this Round of 32 matchup between Purdue and McNeese State opened at Purdue -5.5, moving half a point further in favor of the Boilermakers in the past day. Oddsmakers set the point total to 143.5, which has climbed down a full point to 142.5.

Purdue's well-documented in struggling to stop opposing offenses during Big Ten play this season. The Boilermakers lack a dominant presence in the interior like they've had in previous years, placing a bigger burden on the offense to be hyper-efficient.

Purdue's offense is very talented. They rank 17th in offensive rating (117.2) and 23rd in true shooting percentage (59%), led by F Trey Kaufman-Renn. Kaufman-Renn is 6-9 and has great touch around the rim, averaging 20.2 points and 6.3 rebounds per game this season, along with G Braden Smith, averaging 16.2 points and 8.6 assists. The Boilermakers need these two to be on their best game to manufacture a win against McNeese State.

The Cowboys don't have a ton of size either, led by a trio of guards that average anywhere between 10.6 to 12.6 points per game. McNeese State won the Southland Conference without much of a sweat. They enter this Round of 32 matchup against Purdue ranked 25th in offensive rating (116.0) and 66th in true shooting percentage (57.2%) this year.

The edge that McNeese State holds against Purdue is its rebounding effort. The Cowboys are 75th in total rebound percentage (52.7%) compared to the Boilermakers sitting at 127th with a 51.6% total rebound rate. This isn't a huge difference but it could lead to more second-chance scoring opportunities for Purdue.

There's no doubt Purdue head coach Matt Painter will have his team urgent and aggressive early in this game to avoid the same fate as Clemson. The Cowboys allowed Clemson to score 54 points in the second half to nearly give the game away after holding an 18-point lead at halftime.

Purdue's last two losses came against Illinois, 88-80, and Michigan, 86-68. Both of those teams have much more talent and size than McNeese State. The Boilermakers' offense is lethal inside of the three-point arc and they have a much better strength of schedule (6th) vs. McNeese State (167th) playing in the Southland Conference.

Laying six points with Purdue feels like the right bet to place in this matchup. The Cinderella run for McNeese State has been nothing short of entertaining and heartfelt, yet they are running into a top-20 offense that grinded a Big Ten schedule.

We saw High Point hang around early before fading away late in the second half against the Boilermakers. I think we could have a similar outcome in today's Round of 32 matchup between Purdue and McNeese State, so let's bet a unit on Purdue to cover -6.0 during the first game on Saturday's March Madness slate.

Purdue vs. McNeese State Pick

• Pick: Purdue -6.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Purdue vs. McNeese State

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