Baylor vs. Duke Prediction: Can Cooper Flagg, Blue Devils Blow Out Bears in Round of 32?

The No. 1 seed in the East Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, the Duke Blue Devils, will take on the 9-seed Baylor Bears during the March Madness Round of 32 on Sunday afternoon. Duke is led by freshman star F, Cooper Flagg, while Baylor's V.J. Edgecombe and Norchad Omier will attempt to record a massive upset to advance to the Sweet 16.

Duke is coming off of a 93-49 rout over 16-seed Mount St. Mary's in the First Round, while Baylor won a back-and-forth thriller against 8-seed Mississippi State. The Blue Devils have won 12 consecutive games, while the Bears are 2-2 SU in their last four games, losing 65-61 to Houston and 76-74 against Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament.

NCAAB handicapper Matt MacKay is back with his favorite bet to place on this Round of 32 matchup between Baylor and Duke, using the latest odds. Follow Matt's X account for more NCAAB betting insight and free picks during March Madness.

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Baylor vs. Duke Odds

• Spread: Baylor +12.0 (-115), Duke -12.0 (-105)
• Moneyline: Baylor (+600), Duke (-900)
• Total: Over 144.0 (-110), Under 144.0 (-110)

Baylor vs. Duke Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 23, 2025
• Time: 2:40 PM ET
• How to Watch: CBS

Click here for latest Baylor vs. Duke Odds

Baylor vs. Duke Prediction

Oddsmakers initially opened the lines between Baylor and Duke with the Blue Devils laying -11.5 on the point spread. It's climbed up to -12.0, while the point total has climbed half a point from 143.5 to an even 144.0.

Baylor's best chance in this game is to get freshman guard V.J. Edgecombe going early on. Edgecombe struggled against Mississippi State but came through late to help the Bears win the game. Norchad Omier will have his hands full in the paint against Cooper Flagg, although Omier's a double-double machine, so he could grab some key rebounds to give Baylor pivotal second-chance scoring opportunities.

Duke is the nation's best team in terms of offensive rating (124.5), while Baylor is ranked 50th in this metric. The Blue Devils are also third in defensive rating (92.3), while the Bears are 130th (103.0) this season. Duke's true shooting percentage is fourth-best in the country, far outpacing Baylor's 150th ranking when it comes to true shooting efficiency.

The Bears are 83rd in total rebound percentage (52.5%) but once again, Duke is 10th at 55.8%. Duke's likely going to hold a big edge on the glass, while making more of their shots from the floor and containing Baylor's top two scorers.

This is the biggest point spread during Sunday's Round of 32 slate but it's justified. When Flagg's been healthy and available to play, Duke has won by 12 or more points in nine straight matchups. Baylor's a good basketball team but they have a very difficult matchup to overcome on Sunday afternoon.

The Bears have held 14 straight opponents under 77 total points leading into this Round of 32 matchup against Duke. However, I believe this streak ends today. Baylor finally won its first NCAA Tournament game since 2008 when they beat Mississippi State in the First Round. They can build on their success during the offseason but it's going to be nearly impossible to hang with Duke's top-tier roster.

Let's lay -12 with Duke against Baylor in the Round of 32 and watch one of the best teams in the tournament roll into the Sweet 16 without much of a sweat.

Baylor vs. Duke Pick

• Pick: Duke -12 (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Baylor vs. Duke odds

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