Maryland vs. Florida Prediction: Can Walter Clayton Jr., Gators Overwhelm Derik Queen, Terps in Sweet 16?

The No. 1 seed Florida Gators take on the No. 4 seed Maryland Terrapins in an exciting Sweet 16 matchup tonight at the Chase Center in San Francisco.

Florida entered the NCAA Tournament red-hot after dominating the SEC Tournament. The Gators kept things rolling with a 95-69 win over Norfolk State, but UConn almost pulled off a major upset in the Round of 32. Florida held on for a 77-75 win, but the Huskies were the better team for most of that game. If it weren’t for late-game heroics from Walter Clayton Jr. (who scored 23 points), and if UConn had converted more of their open looks, the Gators could have easily been sent home early.

Maryland is similarly fortunate to still be alive. The Terps raced by Grand Canyon in their opener 81-49, but needed a heroic buzzer-beater from stud freshman Derik Queen to advance past Colorado State, 72-71. The "Crab Five" combined for 70 of Maryland’s 72 points, with each starter contributing between 11 and 17 points.

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Maryland vs. Florida Odds

• Spread: Maryland +6.5 (-110), Florida -6.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Maryland (+240), Florida (-275)
• Total: Over 157.5 (-105), Under 157.5 (-108)

Maryland vs. Florida Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 27, 2025
• Time: 7:39 PM ET
• How to Watch: TBS, TruTV

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Maryland vs. Florida Prediction

There are a few different angles here worth exploring. One of the biggest concerns for Maryland is their depth—something that always comes up with this team. Kevin Willard’s squad is 10th in KenPom and has been very successful this season despite ranking 345th nationally in bench points per game. They’ve only lost eight games all year, none by more than six points. Plus, three of their four losses since early January were on buzzer-beaters.

Maryland boasts the 6th-ranked defense on KenPom, and offensively (22nd in KenPom), they have multiple ways to attack—whether it’s the face-up scoring of Queen, the bully-ball of Julian Reese, or the off-the-dribble creation and shotmaking from their excellent trio of guards (Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and Selton Miguel).

Despite those strengths, I do think Maryland could be outmatched here. In Willard’s pregame presser, he stated, "There’s just no way [Queen and Reese] are going to be able to log 36 minutes against this team."

Florida is a different beast. They go nine deep and relentlessly attack the offensive glass (5th nationally in OReb%). Reese and Queen have a daunting task trying to clean up the defensive boards, and when Jordan Geronimo or any of Maryland’s reserves come in, there is a noticeable drop-off on both ends.

Maryland also plays a lot of drop coverage, and I think Clayton Jr. is going to feast on that. The bigs will already be preoccupied with Florida’s relentless size (Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, Micah Handlogten, Thomas Haugh) crashing the glass, giving Clayton space to operate in the middle of the floor. If Maryland brings more help or decides to hedge, Florida’s perimeter threats—Will Richard, Alijah Martin, and others—will make them pay from deep.

On the other end of the floor, while I’ve been a big fan all year of the Crab Five's balanced scoring attack, they still have to work much harder for their buckets than Florida does. Given how strong UF is defensively and their up-tempo pace, I could easily see Maryland’s guards shooting well, Queen going for 20, and it still not being enough.

Willard compared Florida to Michigan State in his presser, highlighting their depth, dominance on the glass, and transition game. Maryland lost that game on a Tre Holloman halfcourt buzzer beater 58-55. Unlike Sparty though, Florida is definitely not playing in a game that low scoring. They won’t be shooting 22-65 from the field, and this game isn’t being played in College Park.

I’m not going to argue that the Willard-to-Villanova rumors mean the Terrapins aren’t fully locked in, but it’s still a distraction they don't need. Meanwhile, Florida has looked almost invincible as of late up until the battle with UConn. I will say that that UConn's complex off-ball action is what gave the Gators the most trouble, and Maryland will not be looking to exploit in that same fashion. After that scare on Sunday, I expect Todd Golden to have his team locked in and ready to go here, getting back to scoring 80+ in their sleep.

I think Florida wins this game by double digits. -6.5 feels like a bargain.

Maryland vs. Florida Pick

• Pick: Florida -6.5 (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Maryland vs. Florida odds

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