Purdue vs. Houston Prediction: Can LJ Cryer, Cougars Roll Over Boilermakers in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16?

No. 1 seed Houston takes on No. 4 seed Purdue tonight in the Midwest Regional Semifinal in Indianapolis.

Houston has lost just one game in regulation since mid-November and went undefeated on the road this season. That level of dominance has carried into the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars crushed SIUE 78–40 in their opener, then held off a late push from Gonzaga to win 81–76. LJ Cryer has led the way with 45 total points through two games.

Purdue is one of three teams to reach the Sweet 16 by facing two double-digit seeds. High Point gave them a scare in round one, but Matt Painter’s squad executed late and pulled out a 75–63 win. In round two, Purdue beat McNeese 76–62 — a score that makes it sound closer than it was. Trey Kaufman-Renn has been huge, posting 21 points and 8 rebounds in the opener, then following it with 22 and 15.

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Purdue vs. Houston Odds

• Spread: Purdue +8.5 (-110), Houston -8.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Purdue (+340), Houston (-400)
• Total: Over 154.5 (-110), Under 154.5 (-105)

Purdue vs. Houston Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 28, 2025
• Time: 10:09 PM ET
• How to Watch: TBS, TruTV

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Purdue vs. Houston Prediction

Kelvin Sampson’s defense has been a top-10 unit for five straight years — this season, it’s ranked No. 1 in the country. With elite athletes across the board and tremendous strength and length in the frontcourt, Houston forces turnovers (18th in TO%) and protects the rim (5th in block%) at a ridiculous level. Their aggressive ball-screen coverage, post traps, and relentless effort make them a nightmare matchup.

Matt Painter is one of the best offensive minds in college basketball. Braden Smith is one of the best facilitators and pick-and-roll operators in the country. Trey Kaufman-Renn is a top-tier post scorer. But even with all that, I don’t think Purdue has much of a chance here.

The Boilers rely heavily on Smith and Kaufman-Renn to create offense. And against other aggressive defenses this season, they’ve struggled. Purdue took losses to Marquette, Texas A&M, Auburn, Penn State, and Michigan State — all teams that brought pressure. If Houston can get the ball out of Smith’s hands with high hedges, and make TKR playmake or finish out of the short roll, Purdue’s offense gets pushed into uncomfortable territory — relying on shot-making and secondary pieces.

I trust Houston’s defense to show up like it always does: forcing turnovers, grinding teams down, and taking away first and second options. Even McNeese — outmatched across the board — forced Braden Smith into 8 turnovers. For Purdue to hang in this one, they’ll need standout performances from Fletcher Loyer, CJ Cox, Myles Colvin, and Cam Heide.

On the other end, Houston’s guards are rolling. This is the best three-point shooting team in the country, with Cryer, Emmanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan all shooting over 42% from deep. J’Wan Roberts has taken a leap as a scorer, and I’m not sure how Purdue plans to contain him.

Yes, the game being in Indianapolis is a boost for Purdue — but Houston is flat-out better, and unbeaten on the road anyway.

Cougars overwhelm the Boilers and win by double digits.

Purdue vs. Houston Pick

• Pick: Houston -8.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Michigan vs. Auburn odds

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