Texas Tech vs. Florida Prediction: Will Alex Condon Play Through Ankle Injury, Boost Gators to Final Four?

The Elite Eight tips-off with a matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Florida Gators. Among the most notable storylines entering this game is Florida's 6-11 F, Alex Condon, who suffered an ankle injury during the Gators' win over Maryland. Condon is currently tagged as a game-time decision against Texas Tech tonight.

Texas Tech erased a deficit late against Arkansas in their Sweet Sixteen matchup to force overtime. The Red Raiders narrowly beat John Calipari's Razorbacks, 85-83. The Gators were in a close game with Maryland in the 1st half but created separation in the second half, outscoring the Terrapins by 14 points to record an 87-71 win.

NCAAB handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his favorite bet to place ahead of Saturday's Elite Eight matchup between 3-seed Texas Tech against 1-seed Florida in the West Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket, using the latest odds. Follow Matt's X account for more NCAAB betting insight and free picks during March Madness.

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Texas Tech vs. Florida Odds

• Spread: Texas Tech +7 (-105), Florida -7 (-109)
• Moneyline: Texas Tech (+270), Florida (-335)
• Total: Over 157.5 (-105), Under 157.5 (-110)

Texas Tech vs. Florida Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 29, 2025
• Time: 6:09 PM ET
• How to Watch: TBS, truTV

Click here for latest Texas Tech vs. Florida Odds

Texas Tech vs. Florida Prediction

Florida is a massive betting favorite entering tonight's Elite Eight tilt against Texas Tech. It's for good reason. The Gators are ranked fourth in offensive rating (121.1) and 40th in defensive rating (98.4), led by Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard in their back court.

Florida has a ton of size in the paint as well, with Condon at 6-11, averaging 7.7 rebounds per game, along with F Thomas Haugh and C Rueben Chinyelu combining for 12.6 rebounds per game this season. As a result, the Gators are 10th in total rebound percentage (55.7%), which will give them a massive edge against Texas Tech, who's ranked 46th at 53.3 percent. Of course, this could change if Condon winds up missing tonight's game or playing on a minutes restriction.

Texas Tech has plenty of sharpshooters to try and keep pace with Florida's high-tempo offense. The Red Raiders' primary scorers include F JT Toppin, averaging 18.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, followed by F Darrion Williams and G Chance McMillian, combining for 29 points per game this season.

Injuries have kept Texas Tech's offense from achieving its full potential down the stretch of the regular season. McMillian is a game-time decision tonight, while Williams and Toppin are ready to roll in the Red Raiders' front court. McMillian is the primary distributor and a quality three-point shooter but he hasn't played since suffering an injury against Baylor during the Big 12 Conference Tournament on March 13th.

Oddsmakers have set the point spread to -7 Florida, with the point total climbing up from 156.5 to 157.5. Texas Tech is 26-10 in favor of the point total under, while Florida is 20-17 on the point total under this season. The Red Raiders are a red-hot 34-2 ATS, covering 94 percent of their games played, compared to Florida's 29-8 ATS record.

Florida struggled to put away UConn until the final couple of minutes in their Round of 32 matchup. It took awhile to break away from Maryland in the Sweet Sixteen as well. I'm not bullish about laying seven with the Gators, despite how dominant they can play on both ends of the court.

One thing we know about Florida is their highly efficient offense. Texas Tech has surrendered 86 points to Arizona and 83 points to Arkansas in two of their previous four games played. Oddsmakers have set Florida's point total to 81.5. This is what we need to prioritize on our bet slips tonight.

The Gators offense has gone over 82.5 total points in nine of their last ten games. The only time it didn't happen was against UConn in the Round of 32. Texas Tech's defensive rating is outside the top 70 and they are marginally worse at grabbing rebounds in comparison to Florida.

Even without Condon fully healthy, I like Florida's shooters to stay red-hot on the floor tonight. Let's bet a unit on the Florida Gators' team total and go over 82.5 total points against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight.

Texas Tech vs. Florida Pick

• Pick: Florida Total Points Over 82.5 (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Texas Tech vs. Florida odds

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