Michigan State vs. Auburn Prediction: Can Spartans Defense Limit Johni Broome, Tigers Early in Elite Eight?

In another chalk regional final, the No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers take on the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans this afternoon in Atlanta.

Auburn has looked a little up and down so far this tournament, which says a lot about how elite this team is, considering they’ve still won every game by double digits. Auburn trailed at halftime vs. Creighton before going on to win 82–70, and led by just one point at halftime vs. Michigan, leaning on a big second-half run on their way to a 78–65 win.

Michigan State has also struggled in first halves of games during this tournament. Sparty only led 15-seed Bryant by five at the break, and trailed both New Mexico and Ole Miss by two. Tom Izzo’s group went on to beat New Mexico without too much of a sweat, 71–63, and closed strong against Ole Miss to escape with a 73–70 victory.

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Michigan State vs. Auburn Odds

Michigan State vs. Auburn Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 30, 2025
• Time: 5:05 PM ET
• How to Watch: CBS

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Michigan State vs. Auburn Prediction

There’s a lot of interesting angles to explore in this matchup. One is the rebounding battle. Michigan State is 28th in offensive and 8th in defensive rebounding rate nationally. That is a constant area where Sparty excels. MSU has the edge on paper vs. an Auburn team that doesn’t grade out nearly as well on the glass (42nd in OReb%, 160th in DReb%), but with Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell, Chaney Johnson, and Chad Baker-Mazara, the Tigers have the size, physicality, and athleticism to go toe-to-toe with the Spartans' frontline.

With Michigan State’s stable of bigs (Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper, Szymon Zapala), they have plenty of bodies to throw at Johni Broome — but how effective will they be, and will Izzo bring double teams if need be? Broome just went for 22 and 16 against a Michigan team boasting two 7-footers.

Freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford has been Auburn’s best scorer in the tournament so far. He’s gone for 20 and 23 in his last two games. I do think Michigan State’s Tre Holloman and Jeremy Fears are capable of doing a great job guarding him, though.

I’ve been saying this for a while now — Michigan State’s halfcourt offense outside of Jase Richardson (20 points vs. Ole Miss on 6-of-8 FGs) is not that good. However, they continue to overcome this because:

1. Jase is that good
2. MSU is third nationally in fast break points per game
3. They get to the line a ton (42nd in FT rate)
4. They shoot their free throws well (78%)
5. They create second-chance points from the aforementioned offensive rebounding.

Bruce Pearl vs. Tom Izzo — two deep, physical, athletic teams — I’m expecting another dogfight. Both of these squads frustrate me with their halfcourt offense and shot selection at times, and as we’ve seen throughout this tournament, these teams can be quite inconsistent. But they’ve both been able to turn things up when they’ve needed to.

I lean towards taking the +5.5 with Sparty, but my best bet in this game is on the total.

Both of these teams like to run when they can, but I’m expecting a defensive-minded, slower-paced battle here. In the halfcourt, I think both teams will be able to do a really good job guarding each other. Opting to get in and get out at halftime, as if this is close as I expect, the number could creep over with some late-game fouling.

Michigan State vs. Auburn Pick

• Pick: 1H Under 69.5 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Michigan State vs. Auburn game props

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