Florida vs. Auburn Prediction: Can Walter Clayton Jr., Gators Outlast Tigers in SEC Final Four Rematch?
The Florida Gators will take on the Auburn Tigers in the first game of the Final Four on Saturday night. Can Walter Clayton Jr. and the red-hot Gators take down the No. 1 overall seeded Tigers in a rematch of their regular season matchup? Christian Odjakjian believes so, and explains why in his Florida vs. Auburn prediction for the Final Four.
Christian Odjakjian - April 5, 2025, 3:00 PM EDT
5 minFlorida vs. Auburn Prediction: Can Walter Clayton Jr., Gators Outlast Tigers in SEC Final Four Rematch?
No. 1 seeds and familiar SEC foes Florida and Auburn meet tonight in the first national semifinal game in San Antonio at the Alamodome.
We have to start by evaluating the data point from February 8th at Neville Arena, when Florida pulled off a 90-81 win as 10.5-point underdogs. That result handed Auburn one of just two losses before March (the other came against Duke). The win becomes even more impressive when you factor in that Florida was without Alijah Martin, and Micah Handlogten still hadn’t made his season debut. A few key notes from that game:
- Auburn jumped out to a 10-point lead, but Florida led 48-38 at halftime
- Walter Clayton Jr. played all 40 minutes, finishing with 19 points and 9 assists
- Johni Broome went for 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists — but shot just 7-of-16 inside the arc
- Auburn shot a rough 14-of-23 from the free throw line
And it wasn’t just hot shooting that carried Florida — they ran beautiful offense. They carved Auburn up with clean cuts to the basket, well-timed lobs, and wide open catch-and-shoot threes. The Gators had a sharp game plan and threw Auburn for a loop.
Get your first month of oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99. Don't miss out on this March Madness deal!
Florida vs. Auburn Odds
- Moneyline: Florida -150, Auburn +130
- Spread: Florida -2.5 (-110), Auburn +2.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 160.5 (-115), Under 160.5 (-105)
Florida vs. Auburn Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, April 5, 2025
- Game Time: 6:09 PM ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Click here for latest Florida vs. Auburn Odds
Florida vs. Auburn Prediction
The major storyline this time around is health. Not only is Florida now at full strength with Martin and Handlogten available, but Broome will almost certainly be less than 100% after aggravating an injury in the Elite Eight win over Michigan State.
A few stylistic matchups are worth noting. Two big ways to disrupt Florida’s offense are keeping them off the offensive glass and forcing turnovers. Auburn, however, ranks outside the top 160 nationally in both defensive rebounding and turnover percentage.
Florida’s frontcourt depth — Chinyelu, Condon, Handlogten, and Haugh — gives them the luxury of guarding bigs one-on-one and staying home on shooters. As great as Broome is (even at 85%, he’s still a load), I’d rather make him finish over length than double him and allow Auburn’s offense to get into scramble mode and generate clean looks from deep.
You could argue Auburn has looked better in this tournament overall, and Florida absolutely needed every bit of Walter Clayton’s heroics against UConn and Texas Tech. But I think Florida’s been playing more intentional basketball for the last month. Offensively, I trust their shot selection more. Clayton is a maestro — creating for himself and others — and with their deep nine-man rotation and relentless effort on the offensive glass, they consistently generate high-quality looks.
Auburn — and I know I’m nitpicking the No. 1 overall seed here — can be frustrating. Guys like Denver Jones and Chad Baker-Mazara have a tendency to be quick-triggered and take tough shots. When Auburn plays through Broome, they generate a good look almost every time. But too often, they drift away from that, and it doesn’t feel like the coaching staff reins it in.
This has all the makings of a heavyweight fight — two elite teams, two high-level coaches, and a ton of familiarity. But I feel more confident rolling with Florida. They’re healthier, they have the best guard on the floor, and they already won this matchup once — shorthanded — on the road.
Florida vs. Auburn Pick
- Pick: Florida -2.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Florida vs. Auburn odds
COLLEGE BASKETBALL ODDS & PICKS
