March Madness Futures Bets: Is Anyone Capable of Shutting Down Cooper Flagg, Duke in Final Four?
We're only two games away from crowning a National Champion, but with every obstacle in the way. These 1-seeds are full of star power and the ability to go the distance, but who has the best chance to string the final two games together? Matt MacKay takes a look at each Final Four squad and details his recommended future bets based on matchup and probability.
Matt MacKay - April 5, 2025, 11:45 AM EDT
6 minMarch Madness Futures Bets: Is Anyone Capable of Shutting Down Cooper Flagg, Duke in Final Four?
We're about to watch one of the most loaded Final Fours in the history of the NCAA Tournament next Saturday. All four one-seeds won their region this season, just the second time this has happened, with the first occurring in 2008.
Auburn is the overall 1 seed but they have the longest odds to win the National Championship at +525. Duke is the betting favorite in all futures markets at +110, ranked top-five in offensive and defensive rating. The Blue Devils will face Houston's elite defense in the second game on Saturday's Final Four slate. In the other Final Four game, Florida and Auburn are set for their second head-to-head matchup this season with a National Championship berth at stake.
NCAAB handicapper Matt MacKay is back with the latest odds and his favorite teams to bet on within the updated 2025 NCAA Tournament National Champion futures markets ahead of Saturday's Final Four matchups in San Antonio, Texas. Follow Matt's X account for more NCAAB betting insight and free picks during the remainder of March Madness.
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MARCH MADNESS OUTRIGHTS: FINAL FOUR UPDATE
DUKE BLUE DEVILS (+110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
There's almost no reason to fade Duke, even in their toughest matchups played during this NCAA Tournament. Arizona gave the Blue Devils their most competitive game thus far, winning 100-93, yet it wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicates.
Cooper Flagg is the frontrunner to win the John Wooden Award as a freshman forward, yet he's been surrounded by plenty of talent on Duke's roster. Tyrese Proctor is a great distributor and efficient shot-maker, freshman G Kon Knueppel is vastly underrated, and the return of 7-2 freshman C, Khaman Maluach has had a massive impact in the paint for the Blue Devils.
Duke will find a way to stifle Houston's offense and overcome their smothering defense in their Final Four matchup on Saturday night. Once that happens, expect Duke's futures odds to dry up and flip from plus to minus odds. In this scenario, with +110 still available, bet up to two units on the Blue Devils to win the 2025 NCAA Tournament National Championship.
FLORIDA GATORS (+290) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Florida's late-game heroics from Walter Clayton Jr. and Thomas Haugh propelled the Gators into the Final Four over Texas Tech. This team overcame adversity twice during the NCAA Tournament. UConn was competitive until late in the Round of 32, as the Gators beat the back-to-back National Champions. Then, they erased a late deficit with clutch shots from Clayton and Haugh in the Elite 8 against the Red Raiders.
This is arguably the most explosive offense left in the NCAA Tournament. 6-11 F Alex Condon's return from an ankle injury gives the Gators size in the paint to help with their rebounding and defensive presence, while Clayton and Haugh have become the consistent scorers for Florida's offense.
A rematch against Auburn awaits on Saturday night for a trip to the National Championship game. Oddsmakers favor Florida -2.5 against the Tigers, previously beating Auburn on the road, 90-81.
I'm not nearly as bullish on Florida compared to Duke. However, at +290, a half-unit wager is justified with this price on the Gators' talented offense.
HOUSTON COUGARS (+450) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Houston plays an old-school style of basketball in a modern era that favors finesse and three-point shooting. The Cougars can make their three-pointers, led by G LJ Cryer and G Milos Uzan, which is when they become even more dangerous to beat.
This team, under head coach Kelvin Sampson, hasn't lost since February 1st at Texas Tech. Houston is capable of winning games in a variety of different ways. They survived a scare against Purdue in the Sweet Sixteen, then shut down Tennessee's offense in the Elite 8.
The Cougars have an uphill battle against Duke in the Final Four. Flagg, Proctor, Knueppel, Sion Williams, and Maluach are dynamic on both ends of the court. The Blue Devils have the size advantage in the paint and a lot more depth in terms of scoring.
I'm not going to recommend betting on Houston to win the National Championship at +450. Their win streak will come to an end against a Duke team that is simply too loaded to lose.
AUBURN TIGERS (+525) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Auburn has the other contender to win the John Wooden Award this season, F Johni Broome. Broome has been a force for the Tigers all season, including the NCAA Tournament. He returned after suffering an elbow injury against Michigan State in the Elite 8 and made several clutch shots, rebounds, and assists to will Auburn to a six-point win.
Broome is a double-double machine and has great touch from all areas of the court on offense. Auburn's guards are deep and explosive. Tahaad Pettiford has been on a tear during March Madness, while Miles Kelly, Denver Jones, and Chad Baker-Mazara all average 11 points per game or more.
If there's going to be an upset in the Final Four on Saturday night, it'll be Auburn taking down Florida. They already played once and the Tigers lost by nine points at home to the Gators. They'll be ready to get revenge against Florida.
I like Auburn's guard play and Broome is going to be able to overcome Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, and Haugh in the interior to grab key rebounds and finish possessions with a bucket. Florida had to rally in the final two minutes to beat a Texas Tech team that didn't have the same size or talent compared to the Gators. In fact, the Gators were out-rebounded for most of their Elite 8 win against the Red Raiders.
At +525 odds, sprinkle half a unit on the overall 1-seed, Auburn, to beat Florida and take down Duke in the 2025 National Championship game for over two units of profit. It's a realistic scenario that can't be ignored at this price.
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