Texas vs. NC State Prediction: Can Longhorns Outlast Wolfpack in First Four on Tuesday Night?
The Texas Longhorns snuck into March Madness, and will take on NC State on Tuesday night in Dayton's First Four. Can Tramon Mark and the Longhorns turn it around and advance to Thursday? McBet is targeting the slight underdog in this Texas vs. NC State prediction for Tuesday, March 17th.
McBets - March 17, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadTexas vs. NC State Prediction: Can Tramon Mark, Longhorns Advance in First Four from Dayton Tonight?
Texas and NC State meet today in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament, and this matchup sets up well for Texas catching points in what should be another high scoring battle between two offense oriented teams.
Texas returns to the NCAA Tournament under first year head coach Sean Miller, who quickly stabilized the program after the offseason coaching change. The Longhorns’ offensive identity is built around individual shot creation and physical drives to the basket, allowing their guards to manufacture offense late in possessions.
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Texas vs. NC State Odds
Texas vs. NC State Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, March 17th, 2026
- Time: 9:15 PM ET
- Where to Watch: TruTV
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Texas vs. NC State Prediction
The trio of Tramon Mark, Jordan Pope, and Dailyn Swain gives Texas multiple ball handlers who can create their own shot and attack defenders one on one. Ball movement is not a major part of the offense, as Texas ranks near the bottom nationally in assist rate. Instead, the Longhorns lean heavily on isolations, drives, and post touches to generate scoring opportunities.
Inside, Matas Vokietaitis provides another major weapon. The physical big man ranks third nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes and consistently forces opposing frontcourts into foul trouble. His ability to create contact in the paint is particularly important in this matchup against an NC State defense that has struggled to protect the rim.
NC State arrives under first year head coach Will Wade after building one of the most explosive offenses in the field. The Wolfpack are elite from three point range, ranking among the best teams in the country in three point shooting percentage.
Players like Paul McNeil, Darrion Williams, Matt Able, and Tre Holloman provide plenty of perimeter scoring, and when multiple shooters get hot the Wolfpack can put points on the board quickly. The offense is orchestrated by point guard Quadir Copeland, who ranks among the national leaders in assist rate and consistently creates opportunities for teammates.
The concern for NC State comes on the defensive end. The Wolfpack have struggled to protect the rim and often compensate by packing the paint, which leaves them vulnerable from the perimeter. Opponents attempt threes at one of the highest rates in the country against NC State and have converted those opportunities at an above average clip.
The first meeting between these teams earlier this season provides a clear blueprint for how this matchup can unfold. Texas defeated NC State 102 to 97 in Maui in a game where both teams scored efficiently and Texas controlled the game by consistently getting to the free throw line. The Longhorns finished that game 28 of 33 from the stripe, creating separation despite the high scoring pace.
This matchup once again favors Texas’ offensive style. The Longhorns attack downhill, draw contact, and generate points at the free throw line, exactly the type of offense that can stress an NC State defense that struggles to defend without fouling.
Texas vs. NC State Pick
- 2 Unit Pick: Texas +1.5 (-110) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
While NC State’s perimeter shooting gives them the ability to score in bunches, Texas has the offensive creators and interior presence to keep pressure on the Wolfpack defense throughout the game. With the matchup advantages inside and the ability to control the tempo through physical drives and free throws, Texas is well positioned to stay competitive and potentially win outright.
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