Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament Second Round Odds for March 22nd
Kentucky meets Iowa State in the NCAA Tournament second round after the Wildcats survived an overtime thriller and the Cyclones rolled in round one despite an injury scare to Joshua Jefferson. Jefferson’s status is the biggest storyline heading into Sunday afternoon, with Iowa State’s outlook shifting meaningfully if its star forward is limited. Let’s break down the odds, recent results, and best bet for Kentucky vs. Iowa State on March 22, 2026.
OC Staff - March 22, 2026, 12:05 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadKentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction: Can the Wildcats Capitalize on Joshua Jefferson Injury in NCAA Tournament Second Round?
This matchup feels a lot different depending on Jefferson’s availability. Iowa State still has enough structure and defensive toughness to control long stretches, but Jefferson is one of the few players on the roster who changes the game on the glass, in the paint, and as a playmaker. He exited the first-round win over Tennessee State less than three minutes in, returned to the bench in a walking boot, and remained uncertain for the second round after X-rays came back negative.
Kentucky comes in with real momentum after one of the wildest finishes of the first round. Otega Oweh forced overtime with a halfcourt buzzer-beater and finished with 35 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists in an 89-84 win over Santa Clara. That kind of emotional win can either carry forward or leave some fatigue behind, but it at least gives the Wildcats belief heading into a game many view as closer than the seed lines suggest.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State Recent Results
Iowa State is 28-7, 12-6 Big 12 and opened the tournament with a 108-74 blowout win over Tennessee State. The Cyclones lost Joshua Jefferson early in that game, but still hit 11 threes, forced 16 turnovers, and got 25 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists from Killyan Toure in a dominant performance.
Kentucky is 22-13, 10-8 SEC and advanced with an 89-84 overtime win over Santa Clara. Oweh’s halfcourt buzzer-beater forced the extra period, and the Wildcats finally separated in overtime after a game that featured 20 lead changes and 12 ties.
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Kentucky vs. Iowa State Odds
- Spread: Iowa State -5 (-110), Kentucky +5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Iowa State (-220), Kentucky (+205)
- Total: Over 146.5 (-109), Under 146.5 (-110)
Kentucky vs. Iowa State Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 22nd, 2026
- Time: 2:45 PM ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
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Kentucky vs. Iowa State Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
Everything starts with Jefferson. Before the injury, he was averaging 16.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game, and Iowa State’s staff acknowledged after the first-round win that the team would have to lean more guard-heavy without him. If he is out or clearly limited, the Cyclones lose one of their best interior scorers, one of their top rebounders, and one of their most versatile decision-makers.
That puts more pressure on Tamin Lipsey and the backcourt. Iowa State can still defend and still generate quality offense, but it becomes easier for Kentucky to load up on the perimeter if Jefferson is not close to full strength. Kentucky also has the rebounding edge on paper, and that matters more if Iowa State is missing its best physical frontcourt presence.
Kentucky’s challenge is consistency. The Wildcats have enough talent to win this game outright, but they have also been volatile all season. The upside is obvious when Oweh is attacking downhill and the guards are creating pace, yet Iowa State is exactly the kind of disciplined opponent that punishes sloppy stretches. That is why Lipsey’s role becomes so important. If Jefferson is limited, Iowa State will need Lipsey to be more aggressive as a scorer rather than just a table-setter.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction
If Jefferson were fully healthy, Iowa State would feel much steadier here. The Cyclones are the better defensive team, they are more reliable possession to possession, and they already showed in round one that they can overwhelm teams with pressure and shot-making.
But Kentucky has a real opening if Jefferson is not himself. The Wildcats just survived a high-pressure game, they have the rebounding profile to challenge Iowa State inside, and they have the shot creation to hang around if the Cyclones’ offense loses some of its balance.
I still lean Iowa State to advance because of its structure and overall defensive level, but this has more upset potential than a typical 2 vs. 7 matchup if Jefferson is limited.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State Best Bet
- Pick: Tamin Lipsey Over 13.5 Points (+104) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI makes this the best angle on the board, projecting Lipsey to clear 13.5 points with a 21.44% positive EV. The model has also been especially strong on this prop recently, hitting at a 70.0% clip over his last 10 games with a 35.5% ROI.
The handicap matches the situation. If Jefferson is out or playing at less than full strength, Iowa State needs more offense from Lipsey. He is one of the guards most capable of stepping into extra usage, and Kentucky’s pressure should force the Cyclones’ lead creators to be more assertive as scorers. Lipsey does not need to dominate the ball for 40 minutes, but he likely needs to be more aggressive than usual for Iowa State to control this game.
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