Final Four Best Bets - 5 Top Player Props for Michigan vs. Arizona, Illinois vs. UConn
March Madness has reached the Final Four on Saturday night, and the stars will be shining on these best remaining teams. What are the best player props to target? The Wolf has 5 best bets for Michigan vs. Arizona and Illinois vs. UConn on April 4th.
The Wolf - April 4, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadTop 5 March Madness Player Props: Saturday's Best Bets for NCAA Tournament Second Round
The Final Four is where every weakness gets hunted and every role gets tested. Rotations are tight, stars are playing heavy minutes, and secondary pieces often decide who actually survives the weekend.
Saturday opens with UConn vs. Illinois, then gives us the more anticipated semifinal with Michigan vs. Arizona. The Wolf is attacking a mix of role-player overs, low-threshold shooting value, and one strong scoring angle where the market still has not caught up.
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Top 5 March Madness Player Props - Saturday, March 21st Second Round
1. Elliot Cadeau – Over 11.5 Points (+102) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 75.42%
- Implied Probability: 49.51%
- EV: 52.35%
- Trend: Over in 4 of last 10
This is a pure value play. The recent hit rate is not overwhelming, but the plus-money price and the projection gap make it one of the strongest edges on the board. In a high-level semifinal, Michigan will need backcourt scoring, and Cadeau has a clear path to a more aggressive offensive role.
2. Nimari Burnett – Over 1.5 Threes (-113) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 69.22%
- Implied Probability: 53.19%
- EV: 30.13%
- Trend: Over in 4 of last 10
Low-threshold three-point props stay attractive this deep in the tournament when minutes are secure. Burnett does not need a huge game, just volume and a couple clean looks. Against an Arizona team that will command defensive attention elsewhere, the opportunity should be there.
3. Tomislav Ivisic – Over 8.5 Points (-130) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 69.08%
- Implied Probability: 56.5%
- EV: 22.27%
- Trend: Over in 7 of last 10
Ivisic has been one of Illinois’ more reliable complementary scorers, clearing this number in 7 of his last 10. UConn’s physicality will force Illinois to generate offense from multiple spots, and Ivisic’s interior touch gives him real value here. This is a matchup where a few finishes around the rim can get him home.
4. Braylon Mullins – Over 11.5 Points (-115) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 67.33%
- Implied Probability: 53.48%
- EV: 25.91%
- Trend: Over in 3 of last 10
The trend looks modest, but this is another tournament role bet. Final Four games often create scoring chances for secondary options when defenses load up on the stars. Mullins does not need elite volume, just steady usage and one strong stretch offensively.
5. Kylan Boswell – Over 8.5 Points (-110) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 63.41%
- Implied Probability: 52.36%
- EV: 21.11%
- Trend: Over in 7 of last 10
Boswell has been quietly steady, going over this line in 7 of his last 10. In a game where Illinois will need balanced offense to keep up with UConn, his scoring becomes important. The number is still low enough that one assertive offensive half can put him in position to cash.
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