PICKS & PARLAYS

The Philadelphia 76ers (33-26) travel to TD Garden to face the Boston Celtics (39-20) on Sunday Night Basketball, tipping at 8:00 PM ET with Joel Embiid ruled out (oblique), Paul George still serving his suspension, and Jayson Tatum watching from the bench in a walking boot, as a line that opened at Celtics -4.5 has ballooned to -9.5 entirely on the Embiid news, presenting one of the more interesting fade-the-market spots on the March slate. Boston is coming off a 148-111 demolition of Brooklyn on Friday. Philadelphia just dropped 124-117 on Miami Thursday. Every single game between these two teams this season has been decided by two points or fewer, and the market is suddenly asking you to believe the fourth one won't be.

The Oklahoma City Thunder (46-15), the best team in basketball, head to American Airlines Center on Sunday, March 1 for the final meeting of the season with the Dallas Mavericks (21-38), tipping off at 8:00 PM ET. Oklahoma City arrives as 15.5-point road favorites fresh off a statement overtime win over Denver, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup and looking every bit the MVP frontrunner he was before his nine-game absence. Dallas, meanwhile, rolls out a rotation that would give a G League front office pause: Cooper Flagg is out with a midfoot sprain, Kyrie Irving is gone for the season, Dereck Lively II hasn't played since December, and a handful of other contributors are banged up heading into tip. This is the basketball equivalent of bringing a plastic spoon to a sword fight.

The Portland Trail Blazers (29-32) have no business looking dangerous right now. Damian Lillard is gone for the season, Shaedon Sharpe is in a walking boot for 4-6 weeks, and Deni Avdija has been in and out with a nagging back issue all month. On paper, rolling into Atlanta on the second night of a back-to-back against a Hawks team riding a three-game winning streak is a nightmare draw. The line opened Atlanta (-6) and has settled between -5.5 and -6 across most books, which tells you the market respects Portland's ability to hang around even at their most banged-up. It should. The Blazers are 8-4 against the spread on back-to-backs this season and 11-8 ATS as a dog of six points or more. Atlanta, meanwhile, just ran off three straight against Washington twice and Brooklyn. Sunday is a level-up game.

The Detroit Pistons (44-14), first in the Eastern Conference, make a quick trip to Kia Center to face the Orlando Magic (31-27) on Sunday, March 1, tipping off at 6:00 PM ET. With Franz Wagner confirmed out with an ankle sprain and Jalen Suggs questionable after a rough return Thursday, Orlando is banged up heading into this one while Detroit rolls in off a gritty 122-119 overtime win over Cleveland on Friday. The Pistons are laying -5.5 to -6 on the road depending on the book, and this is a matchup where the injury news, the form line, and the spread all point in the same direction.

The Memphis Grizzlies (22-36) limp into Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday, March 1, tipping at 5:00 PM ET against the Indiana Pacers (15-45), with GG Jackson averaging 21.8 points over his last five games carrying a roster that's lost Ja Morant (elbow), Zach Edey (ankle), and six others to the injury report, while Pascal Siakam's day-to-day wrist status has the Pacers, already operating without Tyrese Haliburton (achilles, season), Aaron Nesmith (ankle), and Ivica Zubac (ankle), looking thinner than a preseason game. The Grizzlies opened as -1 to -1.5 favorites depending on the book, with totals sitting at 237.5 to 238.5, and the spread is as close to a pick'em as it gets, which makes Siakam's availability the only number that actually matters in this one.