WeBeatTheSpread's Premium UFC 283 Gabriel Bonfim vs. Mounir Lazzez Pick
WeBeatTheSpread shares his top premium pick for UFC 283 and he's eyeing the fight between Gabriel Bonfim and Mounir Lazzez. Tail this premium pick and profit.
Ben Rajavuori - January 20, 2023, 5:21 PM EST
5 minWeBeatTheSpread's Premium UFC 283 Gabriel Bonfim vs. Mounir Lazzez Pick
There are a set of Brazilian brothers fighting on the undercard at UFC 283, and one of them fights Mounir Lazzez. Ismael has the tougher matchup against Terrance McKinney, while his brother, Gabriel Bonfim, fights Lazzez. As expected, the Brazilian is favored in this fight, with odds around -175 on most books. Is the price tag justified? Or should we back the underdog, Lazzez, at +140?
Gabriel Bonfim, the Brazilian, has a record of 13-0 and is known for his striking power and aggressive fighting style. He has a background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has shown to be very effective in using his grappling skills to finish his opponents. Of his 13 wins, 10 have come by submission, including four of his last five wins. Bonfim will be making his UFC debut at UFC 283 after earning a contract on Dana White's Tuesday night contender series. He fought Trey Waters and showed off his submission skills, submitting Waters in the first round. He will now take the big stage for the first time, and there are high expectations for him in his debut.
Mounir Lazzez, a Tunisian fighter, has a record of 11-2 and is known for his kickboxing and knockout power. He is a tall, well-rounded fighter who likes to keep the fight standing and use his striking to finish his opponents. He has excellent kicks and is dangerous at the range, where he has earned his nickname "the sniper." He has a decent ground game, but he likes to get his work done on the feet. He sets up his body, and head kicks excellently from his feints, and he is highly accurate. His striking was on full display when he beat Abdul Razak Alhassan in his debut, although he didn't knock him out. Unlike Bonfim, Lazzez has UFC experience under his belt, as this will be his fourth time-fighting in the promotion, and that extra octagon experience should go a long way.
Although both fighters are considered well-rounded, I see Lazzez having the advantage on the feet, and Bonfim the advantage on the ground. Lazzez is the more technical striker who is patient on the feet and calculated. Bonfim is less adjusted on the feet, but if he gets the fight to the ground, Lazzez will have his work cut out for him.
Overall, I think Lazzez will look to stay at range in this fight and pick Bonfim apart. While it may not make for the most entertaining fight, it is a winning game plan. Lazzez has a 4-inch reach advantage, and he is excellent at keeping opponents at distance. If Bonfim has to force closure, Lazzez will perfectly place counterstrikes. While Bonfim could get this fight to the ground and win, I don't like the price tag attached to him. I am picking Lazzez for the upset here, as the price has more value on the underdog here.
Pick: Lazzez ML @ (+140) Bet $100 to collect $240 Get the best odds at DraftKings, click here to bet
