WeBeatTheSpreads' Premium Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Pick

WeBeatTheSpreads' Premium Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Pick

Islam Makhachev by Submission (+160) Bet $100 to collect $260. DraftKings has the best odds, click here

At the time of writing, Makhachev is a massive -410 favorite to thwart Volkanovski's dream of becoming double champ. The historical odds suggest Volkanovski should win this fight, but the books don't agree. Can he become the fifth double champ in UFC history to hold two belts simultaneously?

Only four UFC fighters can say they ever had a champ versus champ fight to hold two belts simultaneously: Conor McGregor, Amanda Nunes, Daniel Cormier, and Henry Cejudo. What's interesting to note is that there have only been six attempts. The two who failed in the challenged weight class were BJ Penn and Israel Adesanya. New UFC fans probably remember the Israel Adesanya fight for his second belt at light heavyweight, as it is the most recent attempt we have seen for a double champ. Of course, Adesanya failed, but he was only the second fighter to fail in six attempts. Odds-wise, it seems the fighter who is challenging for the second belt has won four out of six times or 66.6%. This is interesting, because Volkanovski is the challenger and massive underdog. When you consider the situation, however, the odds make sense.

We have seen another attempt from a featherweight attempting to become a double champ at lightweight, and you may have heard of him before. His name is Conor McGregor, and he was the first fighter in UFC history to become a champion in two divisions simultaneously. Like Volkanovski, McGregor became the featherweight champ first, then stepped up to challenge the lightweight division. The difference is McGregor fought a predominant striker, Eddie Alvarez, and it was a standing affair, which of course favored McGregor. Volkanovski will not have the same fortune.

Islam Makhachev is a wrestler/sambo mixed martial artist who holds a record of 23-1, with his one loss coming back in 2015 in his second UFC fight. Makhachev has now won 11 fights in a row and most recently submitted Charles Oliveira to become the lightweight champion. Makhachev poses a major threat any time he gets you up against the fence or on the ground, as he has some of the best grapplings in the UFC. Of his 12 UFC wins, six have come by submission. He is not a fish out of the water on the feet, though. He is excellent at picking his shots and staying at a distance, and he never puts himself in danger on his feet. He sticks to solid combos to set up his takedowns and get his opponents where he wants them on the ground.

Alexander Volkanovski is a natural-born boxer with some of the best kickboxing in the UFC. He fights out of City Kickboxing with some of the best strikers the world has seen. Volkanovski first got gold around his waist in 2019, when he beat Max Holloway by decision. Since then, Volkanovski has made four title defenses, which included a trilogy against Holloway, a decision over Brian Ortega, and a knockout of Chan Sung Jung.

Volkanovski has crisp, clean jabs and kicks. He has perfected his timing and entries, and he also is speedy. His volume is also intense, averaging 6.79 significant strikes per minute. Volkanovski is 12-0 in the UFC and 25-1 in his professional MMA career, with his lone loss coming in 2013 on the regional scene.

Despite Vollkanovski being 12-0 in the UFC and the double champ challenger, he is a massive underdog in this fight, and I believe it is justified. When we saw these double champ attempts fail, it was when the size discrepancy was vastly visible. Although Makhachev doesn't seem WAY larger than Volkanovski, what makes this fight different is the elite grappling and wrestling from Makhachev. BJ Penn lost to George St. Pierre because of size. Israel Adesanya lost to Blachowicz because of size. When fighters stepping up have won, it was because they both fought on their feet. With Makhachev being a dominant grappler, I don't see Volkanovski being able to keep this fight on its feet. Sure, Volkanovski has had excellent takedown defense at 145 pounds, but will that transfer at 155 pounds against the best grappler in the division? Volkanovski did have one fight in the UFC at 155 pounds, but that was in his debut. A lot has changed since then.

The fact is, Makhachev is too dominant a grappler to lose this matchup. Makhachev is coming off a submission win against Charles Oliveira, who was considered the best grappler at lightweight coming into that fight, which says a lot about Makhachev's wrestling. With the size advantage going to Makhachev, I don't see how he doesn't get this fight to the ground and submit Volkanovski. It would be cool to see another double champ, but this isn't the matchup.