Jim Miller vs. Alexander Hernandez Prediction: Trust This Expert's Best Bet on UFC Fight Night

Jim Miller vs. Alexander Hernandez Prediction: Trust This Expert's Best Bet on UFC Fight Night

Up-and-comer Alexander Hernandez tries to get back in the win column tonight against the most seasoned veteran in UFC history, Jim Miller. While Hernandez has a lot of potential, his inconsistency and cardio issues are concerning. On the other hand, Miller seems to have found a resurgence in his career and is on a three-fight winning streak. The books seem to think Hernandez has the tools to win, as the younger man is -220 to knock off the vet. Will he?

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Miller vs Hernandez Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: February 18, 2023
• Time: 7:00 PM EDT
• Where: UFC AEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Where to Watch: ESPN+

Click here for Miller vs Hernandez odds

Jim Miller vs. Alexander Hernandez Prediction

Alexander Hernandez, for the most part, has not lived up to his hype. He's a talented fighter with a game steeped in athletic kickboxing and strong wrestling. He's fast, powerful, and versatile in his striking, and he can land strikes from multiple levels. However, his cardio has failed him in back-to-back fights, and he has only two wins in the UFC outside of round-one finishes. Hernandez seems to be a one-round fighter, and he struggles to get anything going once round one ends. He is now just 5-5 in the UFC, and it seems like he looks lost if the other fighter has an answer for his initial game plan.

Enter Jim Miller. Jim Miller is the record holder with 24 wins in the UFC and has 40 total fights in the UFC. Despite his age and grueling number of fights, he seems to have found a resurgence in his career. He's on a three-fight winning streak, with all fights ending via second-round finish. Miller has switched from a brawl-first to a grapple-first fighting style, recognizing his strengths and what he needs to do to win. He uses technical footwork and heavy hooks to push his opponents back to the cage strategically, and he's effective at clinch work, dirty boxing, and advancing position against the cage. It seems his newer style of fighting late in his career is working out for him, and he's also a tough fighter that is hard to put away. In 51 professional fights, he has been finished just five times.

Miller's grappling skills and experience will give him an advantage in this fight. Hernandez has struggled against UFC veterans like Donald Cerrone and Drew Dober. He'll look to get Hernandez against the cage to take away his kicks and speed advantage and then win a grizzly and dirty fight. While Hernandez has the skills and power to put Miller away in the first round, Miller has a good chin and hasn't been finished since 2018. If he survives the early pressure, he should be able to find a finish against his likely depleted opponent, potentially once again in the second round.

My favorite bet is the under, but I also think Miller wins. Hernandez has the potential to put Miller away early, but if he doesn't, Miller will likely find a way to win. Hernandez has only been to the third round three times in ten UFC fights. Miller has been to the third round three times in his past 12 fights. If Hernandez does win, it will be a brutal first-round finish. If Miller wins, it will be a second-round or late first-round submission.

Hernandez is a talented fighter, but his inconsistency and cardio issues make him a risky bet. Miller, on the other hand, seems to have found a resurgence in his career and has the grappling skills and experience to win this fight. I'm betting on Jim Miller to win but my favorite bet is under two rounds prop.

Jim Miller vs. Alexander Hernandez Pick

• 2 Unit Pick: Jim Miller/Alexander Hernandez Doesn't Start Round 3 @ (-140) Bet $100 to collect $171. Fanduel has the best odds, click here
• Side Pick: Jim Miller ML @ (+188) Bet $100 to collect $288. Fanduel has the best odds, click here

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