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The main event of tonight's UFC Fight Night features an exciting flyweight bout between Jessica Andrade and Erin Blanchfield. Let's break down our prediction, pick, and odds ahead of tonight's bout.
ANALYSIS

UFC Vegas 69 Best Bet: Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield Prediction

The fight was made on short notice, as Andrade steps in to face Blanchfield just one month removed from a beating of Lauren Murphy. Andrade ranked No. 3 in the division, replaces Taila Santos, who was initially scheduled to fight Blanchfield, ranked No. 10 in the flyweight division. The odds were much higher on Andrade early in the week, as she was -190 just a few days ago. Now, on fight day, she is just -115. This is a big test for Blanchfield, but I agree with the line movement.

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Andrade vs. Blanchfield Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: February 18, 2023
  • Time: 7:00 PM EDT
  • Where: UFC AEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

Andrade vs. Blanchfield Odds

  • Winner: Andrade (-112), Blanchfield (+110)
  • Total Rounds: Over 3.5 (-152), Under 3.5 (+130)

Click here for Andrade vs. Blanchfield odds

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Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield Prediction

Andrade is known for her explosive striking, takedowns, and ground-and-pound skills. She is a compact fighter who can hit like a truck and has found effective ways to close the distance to land heavy combinations. However, she tends to struggle with head movement once in the pocket, which could be a concern against Blanchfield, a technical striker who can exploit even the smallest opening. Andrade is also a strong wrestler and submission fighter, but her issues have typically come against taller opponents or fighters who can take her down. She does not do as well off her back and often leaves defensive holes in her game.

On the other hand, Blanchfield is a highly skilled wrestler with technical and fundamental grappling skills. She can get takedowns from range, the clinch, or even when reversing an opponent. Once on the mat, Blanchfield has the ability to hold position and hunt for the finish with ground and pound or submissions. However, her striking is still a question mark in this fight. Blanchfield tends to be broad and slow on the feet, which could leave her exposed against Andrade's aggressive striking.

Considering both sides' advantages, the play in this fight is for Erin Blanchfield to win. While Andrade may look good early with her constant and linear pressure, Blanchfield's technical grappling skills and ability to hold position could lead to success in the later rounds. Andrade's cardio issues and short-notice entry into the octagon could also work in Blanchfield's favor. Although Blanchfield was only initially preparing for three rounds, she has had excellent cardio in all her previous bouts.

Andrade is a scary fighter who has fought against the best fighters in the world, and there is a reason she is a favorite in this fight. She has a long list of wins against high-ranked women's flyweights and has fought for the belt multiple times. She has the experience and hits like a truck. On the other hand, Blanchfield is still super young and is an up-and-comer, but I still like Blanchfield to get it done. All Blanchfield needs is one takedown to hold Andrade down and get her where she is least comfortable. I expect Banchfield to shoot multiple times early in this fight, and she needs to land the first takedown to change the tone of the fight quickly. I'm on Blanchfield to keep moving up the ladder.

Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield Pick

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Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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