WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett UFC 285 Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett UFC 285 Pick

This Saturday, the UFC is set to welcome one of the most exciting prospects in years in Bo Nickal, as he takes on Jamie Pickett in his UFC debut. While Pickett is a solid fighter with plenty of experience, it is Nickal who is the clear favorite for the fight, and for a good reason.

Nickal may only have a 3-0 record in MMA, but don't be fooled into thinking he isn't the clearly better fighter in this matchup. His credentials as a wrestler are the most impressive the sport has seen in a while, to say the least. As a three-time NCAA wrestling champion at Penn State, Nickal's wrestling and even grappling skills were on full display in his two Contender Series fights, both of which lasted just one minute. Nickal got each opponent to the ground in about 30 seconds and quickly finished the fight from there.

Nickal's success is hardly surprising, given the history of wrestlers transitioning to MMA. From Daniel Cormier to Henry Cejudo to Kamaru Usman, there is a long list of wrestlers who have found success in the sport. Nickal looks to be the next in that lineage, and his early success in the UFC suggests that he has what it takes to make a name for himself.

What makes Nickal so dangerous is his ability to mix up his game. Because he is such a skilled wrestler, his opponents will constantly be thinking about the takedown, which opens up opportunities for massive overhand strikes. This is precisely how he finished his most recent bout, and it is a tactic that could well come in handy against Pickett.

Pickett, for his part, is a solid fighter, but he has not had the same level of success as Nickal. With a 2-4 record in the UFC and three losses by finish, he is not exactly a world-beater. That being said, he does possess a long straight left hand that he throws from distance and a clinch game that features knees to the body. While these are decent weapons, they are unlikely to be enough to overcome Nickal's superior grappling and striking abilities.

Of course, it is always possible that Pickett will surprise us all with a new game plan, one that involves going for broke on the feet and looking to land damaging blows early to end the fight before it hits the mat. This would be an all-or-nothing plan, to be sure, but it may be his best chance to pull off an upset. That being said, given Pickett's tendency to be passive in the octagon, it is hard to see him taking such a risk.

All in all, this fight is a complete setup for Nickal to burst into the UFC. Pickett may be a solid fighter, but he is outmatched in this matchup. With his superior grappling and striking abilities, Nickal should be able to control the fight from start to finish and secure the victory. For those looking to bet on the fight, Nickal is the clear pick. While anything can happen in MMA, it is hard to imagine Pickett being able to overcome Nickal's skill set. This fight is clearly a setup from the UFC, and there is a reason that a 3-0 fighter is kicking off the main card against someone who has struggled in the UFC.

While I expect Nickal to win easily, like 99% of the people betting on this UFC event, the moneyline is too high even for a parlay. That being said, there is still value prop wise. I don't like the first round prop as much, as that is the most popular one I have seen going around. Nickal could finish it in the first, but he may look to take Pickett down, exhaust him, and finish him in round two or three. Instead, I like the knockout prop. The knockout line is +230, while the submission line is favored at -175. I see ground and pound as the most likely outcome in this fight. Pickett has okay submission defense, but his chin has been cracked multiple times, and I expect Nickal to exhaust him in this fight. Therefore, I'm backing the dominant Nickal with a +230 prop that I believe provides the most value in the fight.

Pick: Bo Nickal by KO/TKO @ (+230) Bet $100 to collect $330. Caesars has the best odds; click here to bet