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Mateusz Gamrot takes on Jalin Turner tonight. Who will win this lightweight matchup at UFC 285? Ben Rajavuori breaks it down.
ANALYSIS

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner Prediction: Who Will Win This Lightweight Matchup at UFC 285?

The lightweight division will have a top-ten clash between Mateusz Gamrot and Jalin Turner at UFC 285 tonight. With Gamrot currently ranked No. 7 in the lightweight division and Turner climbing up to No. 10, this fight could have a significant impact on the division's rankings. For either man, a title shot might not be far away with a win. It is a close fight that could go either way, but the odds have Gamrot as a sizeable -220 favorite. Are the high odds justified?

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Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner Prediction

Gamrot is known for his impressive wrestling skills, which have been a clear advantage over most of his opponents. His takedown attempts are relentless, with an average of 4.66 takedowns per fight, and his ability to scramble out of positions is exceptional. However, it's worth noting that Gamrot's primary path to victory is through his wrestling. If his opponent can keep the fight standing, Gamrot can be out-volumed and outworked, and we haven't seen Gamrot match up against too many elite strikers yet.

Turner, on the other hand, has an excellent output on the feet and averages 6.48 significant strikes per minute landed, which is at the higher end in the UFC. His size advantage and the unusually long reach of 77 inches could be a crucial factor in this bout, as it enables him to stay at bay from takedown attempts while landing strikes at range. Turner knows how to use his size to his advantage and has little wasted movement in his striking, landing with a high level of accuracy. He can push at a high pace and land with emphasis throughout the entire fight. If he can keep the fight standing, Turner's striking could be the key to victory.

Gamrot's striking is nothing to scoff at, with snipers for hands and power in his strikes. However, his striking style is more basic and predictable than Turner's, who can mix up his attacks with his technical kickboxing skills. Turner's defensive submissions and choke game are also something that Gamrot should be wary of, especially if he gets sloppy with his takedown attempts. Although Turner appears all striker, three of his last four wins have come by submission, with two coming by rear-naked choke. His long limbs help him secure advantageous grappling positions.

Gamrot's losses have come against fighters who can stuff his early takedown attempts, force him off his rhythm, and out-volume him on the feet. Turner fits that mold and could give Gamrot fits if he can keep the fight standing. Turner's takedown defense is also nothing to scoff at, with an impressive 80% success rate. Turner's size and length in his limbs will make it difficult for Gamrot to take him down, and his defensive submissions could be a weapon against Gamrot's aggressive grappling style.

For as wide as the odds are, this fight is closer than the odds suggest. Given that, I predict that Jalin Turner will come out on top. This fight has all the makings of an exciting matchup, with two skilled fighters putting everything on the line for a shot at climbing the lightweight division rankings. The odds are too high to pass on Turner here.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner Pick

Pick: Jalin Turner ML @ (+180) Bet $100 to collect $280 BetMGM has the best odds; click here to bet

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • When: March 4, 2023
  • Start Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Where to Watch: PPV

Click here for Gamrot vs. Turner odds

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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