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Nikita Krylov takes on Ryan Spann at UFC Fight Night later today. Can Krylov win this catchweight fight? Ben Rajavuori breaks this rematch down.
ANALYSIS

Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann Prediction: Can Krylov Win This Catchweight Fight at UFC Fight Night?

Nikita Krylov is set to take on Ryan Spann in the octagon in what is expected to be an intense and exciting matchup between two highly-ranked fighters in the light heavyweight division. This fight was originally scheduled to happen two weeks ago as a main event in the Apex, but Krylov had to back out on fight day due to an illness. However, the fight is back on two cards later, and it is now only three rounds. This fight was immediately remade because the implications for the winner are huge. It's safe to say the winner of this fight could be a win away from a title fight.

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Krylov vs. Spann Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Saturday, March 11, 2023
  • Start Time: 6:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

Click here for Krylov vs Spann odds

Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann Prediction

Krylov is a seasoned veteran in the UFC, having fought top-level competition throughout his career, including former champions. While he has four losses in the UFC, they are all against high-profile opponents. Spann, on the other hand, is a relative newcomer to the promotion and has only recently fought top-level competition recently.

In the original fight, Krylov was -175 on the moneyline. Now, he is just about the same at -170. I did an article on this fight two weeks ago when it was originally scheduled and picked Krylov. In fact, the article below is the same article, and I am using the same reasoning to re-lock in my Krylov bet for tonight.

One area where Krylov has a clear advantage is in his cardio. He has shown the ability to go five rounds, even if he hasn't needed to yet, while Spann has struggled with his cardio even in three-round fights. This could prove to be a significant factor in the later rounds of the fight.

Both men are killers, and it is unlikely that this fight will go to the scorecards. Krylov is the more active striker on the feet and on the ground, averaging 2.11 takedowns per fight to Spann's 1.46. Spann, however, has the best chance to win in the first round, as he is highly athletic and possesses a powerful left hand. Outside of the first round, however, Krylov's cardio and striking volume should give him the advantage.

Krylov's approach in the cage has evolved over the years, as he has become more cautious and predatory in his fighting style. He is at his best when he can string together combinations with consistent takedowns and dirty boxing in the clinch. However, he can sometimes put himself in vulnerable positions in the clinch, which could be a concern against Spann, who has a deadly guillotine choke.

Spann is a dangerous fighter who is adept at finding the smallest opening for a finish, but he struggles against volume and technical strikers. Krylov, with his experience and cardio advantage, is likely to pose a significant challenge for Spann in this regard.

Nikita Krylov is the pick to win this fight. He has fought the much better competition, has a significant cardio edge, and is the more active striker on the feet. While Spann is a dangerous fighter with a powerful left hand and a deadly guillotine choke, Krylov's experience and the well-rounded game should give him the edge in this matchup. If he can avoid making mistakes in the clinch, Krylov should be able to control the fight and potentially finish Spann in the later rounds. It feels like deja-vu, but I am backing Krylov against Spann.

Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann Pick

Pick: Krylov ML @ (-170) Bet $100 to collect $158 DraftKings has the best odds; click here to bet

Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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