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Oddschecker handicapper Super Fan gives his heart-breaking prediction and free pick for this week's UFC 286 main event.

UFC 286 Prediction: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3 Best Bet

Last August, Leon Edwards shocked the world. And all 65,971 of my followers know about it. While I am typically regarded as humble (not really), I could not contain the joy that ran through my veins on August 20th. As president of the Leon Edwards Fan Club, I have never been happier in this sport. The +310 ticket that I cashed on Leon didn't hurt either.

The trilogy will go down this Saturday in Leon's hometown of London. Putting my biases aside, let's break down this UFC 286 main event.

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Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

When: March 18, 2023,

Time: 5:00 PM EDT / 1:00 PM PST

Where: O2 Arena (ENG), London, England

Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Click here for Edwards vs. Usman odds

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman Prediction

As I mentioned, Leon closed as a +310 underdog in his last fight. This time around, oddsmakers are putting some respect on the welterweight champion's name as he now sits as a +200 underdog, with Kamaru coming back as a -240 favorite. As much as it pains me to say I like the money on Kamaru at these closer odds.

The main reason I lean towards Kamaru in the trilogy is that he has a technique that we have never seen before in the sport of mixed martial arts. Calling his own fouls. I once watched a six-minute 'fake fouls in MMA' compilation video on YouTube, and Kamaru made up an entire four minutes of the video. If he played basketball, he would break LeBron James' scoring record off of free throws alone.

Another reason for my lean is that in the last fight, the moment almost looked too big for Leon as he remained 'frozen' at times and refused to fight. And that was just a backyard show in Utah in front of a bunch of Mormons. This time they are fighting on the biggest stage in London, and the lights will never have been brighter.

Leon looked completely defeated in rounds 2, 3, and 4 at UFC 278. If he does not get out of his own way, we will again have to suffer seeing Ali Abdelaziz's oddly shaped head celebrating with Kamaru in the octagon.

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman Pick

As much as it hurts, I must go with my head instead of my heart. This is Leon's last week as champion. My spirit is with Leon, but my money is with Usman.

Pick: Kamaru Usman ML (-240) Bet $100 to collect $141 Caesars has the best odds; click here to bet

Article Author


One of the most prominent personalities on MMA Twitter turned proven handicapper, Super Fan is obsessed with combat sports. As is on par with his brash Twitter brand and personality, he specializes in longshot prop plays. Finishing 2022 up over +100u in just six months of being tracked, he plans to replicate that success in 2023. If you like good laughs and even better bets, Super Fan is your guy. Follow him on Twitter at @McGregorRousey.


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