Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Prediction: Tail This Expert's UFC 286 Best Bet

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Prediction: Tail This Expert's UFC 286 Best Bet

MMA's Homer Simpson returns to the octagon against Rafael Fiziev this Saturday. Justin Gaethje is nearly a +200 underdog against the guy who almost lost to Bobby Green, and I find that fascinating. Let's break this down.

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Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

When: March 18, 2023,

Time: 5:00 PM EDT / 1:00 PM PST

Where: O2 Arena (ENG), London, England

Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Click here for Gaethje vs. Fiziev odds

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Prediction

While Justin Gaethje is 6-4 in the UFC, I believe nine out of ten of those guys are better than the best opponent that Fiziev has ever faced. This will be by far the best opponent that Fiziev has faced, and oddsmakers are not taking this into account. Justin both tapped and still went to sleep in his last two losses, which is hilarious, but there is virtually no threat of that happening here. Justin is the far better grappler and can dominate the fight on the ground if he chooses to. Unfortunately, he has the fight IQ of a cantaloupe, so we cannot justify our bets on that.

Fiziev is arguably the sharpest striker the lightweight division has seen since McGregor, but he has not faced an opponent that makes fights ugly the way Gaethje does. Most of his opponents have allowed Fiziev to dictate the pace of the fight and treated it like a sparring session. That will not happen in this fight. Justin will probably get cracked several times and maybe even dropped, but no matter what, he will keep his foot on the gas like Jon Jones after a hit run. How Fiziev deals with the pressure will be paramount.

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Pick

I see this fight playing out a lot like McGregor vs. Diaz 1 (which Conor clearly won, by the way). An elite striker is going to have to fight in close distance and go backward for the first time in his UFC career. Other than the champion, no lightweight should be -230 against Gaethje. I see a ton of value in the moneyline, and I am putting my unit on Justin to pay off my UFC San Antonio ticket.

Pick: Justin Gaethje ML (+190) Bet $100 to collect $290 DraftKings has the best odds; click here to bet