
Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio Prediction: Can Kevin Holland Get Back on Track at UFC 287?
Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio Prediction: Can Kevin Holland Get Back on Track at UFC 287?
The welterweight rankings may have a new member after this weekend's welterweight bout between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC 287. This fight promises to be a thrilling bout between two high-profile finishers that love to bring the action. The winner will likely find their way into the rankings come Monday. Kevin Holland is a sizeable -260 favorite on the money line against the vet. Can he bounce back after back-to-back losses?
Holland vs. Ponzinibbio Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
When: April 8, 2023
Time: 10:00 PM EDT
Where:Â Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Click here for Holland vs. Ponzinibbio odds
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Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio Prediction
Kevin Holland, with a professional record of 23-9, enters this fight with 12 knockouts and seven submissions to his name. Although he has lost his last two fights, it's important to note that both of those fights were against top-tier opponents in, Stephen Thompson and Khamzat Chimaev. Holland's loss to Chimaev was on short notice at catchweight, which caused the main card to be reshuffled the day before the fight. Holland has made the move down to welterweight after spending most of his career at middleweight. In his new division, Holland started off 2-0 before running into two of the best in the division, now sitting at 2-2 at welterweight (technically 2-1 since the Chimaev bout was at catchweight).
On the other hand, Santiago Ponzinibbio comes into this fight with a 30-6 record, including 16 knockouts and six submissions. The Argentinian fighter is 2-3 in his last five fights, with losses to Michel Pereira, Geoff Neal, and Li Jingliang. At 36 years of age, his age may be catching up to him, partly because he loves to bring up a good fight. He had a good run of seven consecutive victories from 2015 to 2018 but has struggled in recent years since that winning streak.
While Ponzinibbio has great power in his strikes, Holland will have an eight-inch reach advantage over him, which he can use to his advantage by staying away from the Argentinian's knockout blows. Additionally, Holland is the faster striker, which will allow him to keep his distance and control the pace of the fight while staying out of range for Ponzinibbio.
Holland stands at 6'3" with an 81-inch reach, while Ponzinibbio is three inches shorter and eight inches less in reach. With such a significant disadvantage, Ponzinibbio may attempt to take the fight to the ground. However, Holland has shown immense leaps in his ground game after struggling with takedown defense early in his UFC career. If he stays at range and doesn't get sloppy with leg kicks, he should be able to keep the fight standing.
The line has risen quite a bit on Holland, removing the value betting on the money line here, but there is a great price on the decision prop. Yes, both men have high finishing upsides, but Ponzinibbio has a great chin, even at 36 years old, and Holland has shown slightly less power at welterweight than at middleweight. Therefore, I think this fight goes to the scorecards, and Holland will get the win based on higher output and point fighting Ponzinibbio.
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Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio Pick
Pick: Kevin Holland by Decision @ (+170) Bet $100 to collect $270 FanDuel has the best odds; click here to bet
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.