Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Best Bet: Which Heavyweight Will Fall at UFC Fight Night?

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Best Bet: Which Heavyweight Will Fall at UFC Fight Night?

The future of the heavyweight division lies in a pivotal fight between Curtis Blaydes and Sergei Pavlovich this Saturday in the UFC Apex Center. Pavlovich, with a 17-1 record and a 5-1 record in the UFC, is known for his explosive and powerful style, which has led to five first-round finishes in the UFC. Meanwhile, Blaydes, who has a 17-3 record and is an ex-NCAA wrestler, is known for his wrestling skills and averages 6.05 takedowns per 15 minutes. The books have Curtis Blaydes favored in this fight at -170, with the comeback on Pavlovich at +140.

Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, April 22, 2023
• Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN+

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Prediction

While Pavlovich has yet to see a second round in his UFC career, Blaydes is likely the best wrestler at heavyweight. One area of concern for Blaydes is his ability to withstand the heavy hitters who can stand their ground and counter him with power. This is where Pavlovich should have an advantage over Blaydes, as he is a more experienced striker with more power and accuracy.

Pavlovich is known for his ability to pressure forward without overdoing his output. He has a patient approach, picking his moments to unleash his powerful strikes. He throws a sharp jab and heavy hooks and likes to overwhelm his opponents with a barrage of overhand rights. On the other hand, Blaydes has improved his striking in his recent fights, showing good head movement and decent striking overall. Blaydes has an 80-inch reach, which has helped him in his striking exchanges thus far, but Pavlovich actually holds the advantage in reach at 84 inches.

To get the fight to the ground, Blaydes will need to get Pavlovich to respect his strikes. When Pavlovich comes forward, he will have to be aware of Balydes' takedowns. Pavlovich has impressive takedown defense, but he has not faced a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber. Blaydes will need to find a way to take Pavlovich down safely because we have seen Blaydes drop by strikes on his entries before, most recently by Derrick Lewis.

That fight was similar to this one in that Blaydes badly wanted the fight on the ground, so he was shooting takedowns a lot. Lewis read his shot and landed a nasty uppercut that knocked Blaydes out, which is a similar path to victory for Pavlovich in this fight with his power.

While this is a difficult fight to predict, Pavlovich's power and accuracy give him the edge in my eyes. Blaydes has been working on his striking, but he may revert back to his old wrestling habits if he gets hurt. Even if the two fighters have competitive exchanges, Pavlovich is much more likely to hurt Blaydes than vice versa.

It feels like Blaydes will have to rely on his wrestling to win, and while that could work, if Pavlovich can stuff even one of two takedown attempts, Blaydes will be in trouble. I'm backing the underdog in what is a closer fight than the odds suggest. Look for Pavlovich to catch Blaydes on a takedown attempt and drop him.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Pick

Pick: Sergei Pavlovich ML (+140) Bet $100 to collect $240 FanDuel has the best odds; click here to bet

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