WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Mario Bautista vs. Guido Cannetti Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Mario Bautista vs. Guido Cannetti Pick

Bautista by Submission @ (-115) Bet $100 to collect $186. DraftKings has the best odds, click here

Mario Bautista vs. Guido Cannetti is a lop-sided matchup on the UFC Vegas 71 card that takes place tonight in the bantamweight division. Cannetti is a UFC veteran, but his career has been inconsistent, while Bautista is a rising star in the sport with high finishing potential. The books are heavily skewed toward Bautista, given the -1100 money line on Bautista. Given the juiced line, it is not worth taking the money line, but is there value in a prop?

Cannetti has been in the UFC for nine years, but his record has been lackluster, with just four wins in that time. He's coming off two back-to-back wins, but at 43 years old, it remains to be seen whether he can build any significant momentum in his career. Cannetti's weaknesses have been exposed in his losses, particularly to explosive fighters who can drag him into deep waters. In three of his five UFC losses, he was submitted, showing a clear vulnerability in that area.

On the other hand, Bautista is a promising fighter who has amassed a 5-2 record in the UFC, with three consecutive victories. He has an impressive finishing record, with five submissions and three knockouts in his career in 11 total victories. Bautista's well-rounded skill set and high finishing potential make him a significant threat to Cannetti, particularly if he can drag the fight to the ground.

Cannetti has a specific style, standing in a wide karate stance and firing kicks and punches with weight behind them. He wants to keep the fight at range, using his kicks to chip away at his opponent's frame and circle away to reset if they gain ground. While he has powerful blitzing punches, his explosiveness can be difficult to sustain over an entire fight, particularly against more well-rounded opponents.

Bautista has good kickboxing at range and is excellent at returning counters on his opponent's kick attempts. He's also known for his fast combinations, particularly when opponents are against the fence. Bautista's grappling ability is where he shines, with particular strength in finding the mount quickly from various positions and maintaining control. With Cannetti's susceptibility to submissions, this could be an area where Bautista capitalizes.

Like the rest of the world, I see Bautista coming out on top. While Cannetti is dangerous in the opening minutes, his style plays into Bautista's strengths, particularly if he can get the fight to the ground. Cannetti's vulnerability to submissions is also a significant factor, with Bautista's grappling skills making him a threat to finish the fight early. To knock the juice down, the pick for the fight is Bautista to win by submission. While Cannetti has shown improvement in his recent wins, Bautista's all-around skills and finishing potential make him a significant threat.