Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad Prediction: Can Gilbert Burns Make a Statement in UFC 288?

Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad Prediction: Can Gilbert Burns Make a Statement in UFC 288?

UFC 288 was set to have one of the weakest main cards in recent memory until these two surging welterweights signed on the dotted line on less than three weeks' notice. Not only did they agree to take this gutsy fight last minute, but they both also insisted that it be for five rounds. Other welterweights should take notes - *cough cough Colby Covington. Despite these two fighters' bravery, one of them must lose, and we have to make money.

Burns vs. Muhammad Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, May 6, 2023
• Game Time: 10:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: PPV

Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad Prediction

Despite having the most unattractive name in the English language, Gilbert Burns has looked incredible in the past few months. While he looked flawless in his last two wins, the fight that interests me the most is his competitive loss to the best middleweight in the welterweight division - Khamzat Chimaev.

The same Gilbert Burns that got knocked out by a jab was able to eat haymakers from the division's boogeyman and return them with equal ferocity. What is even more impressive is that his jiu-jitsu threat forced the fighter to stay on his feet. If Belal lacks the same confidence in his top game, then this could be a quick night. And even if this fight does hit the ground, we can trust that Burns' will be well prepared, being that his main training partner is Kamaru Usman.

Belal's punches make rubber duck noises when they land. But his keys to victory in this fight do not include power. For him to have success, he will have to rely heavily on his durability and endurance. This fight being scheduled for five rounds heavily benefits Belal. Gilbert tends to gas out while chasing a finish. If Belal can survive the first and second-round swarms from the Brazilian, his odds of winning this fight increase dramatically.

Although both fighters are elite grapplers in their own right, something sticks out to me. Belal Muhammad has only attempted three submissions in his entire UFC career. The No. 4 ranked welterweight rarely looks for the submission on the ground, and I do not think that is going to change against a true BJJ blackbelt that has amassed a 9-0 submission record. This fight may be a coin flip, but in submission props, it is not.

My official play for this card is 2.8 units on Gilbert Burns: submission only at -280. This means that if either fighter wins by decision or TKO, the bet voids. The only possible way to lose is if Belal pulls off a submission which is less likely than Conor McGregor submitting a sample to USADA this year.

Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad Pick

Pick: 2.8 u Gilbert Burns submission only -280 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

UFC Odds

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