Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry Prediction: Can Rodriguez Take Down Undefeated Garry at UFC Fight Night?
Super Fan finds what he believes is a critical mistake in the oddsmakers' logic and tells you how to take advantage of it in another comedic breakdown of the Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry UFC Fight Night bout. You don't want to miss this.
Super Fan - May 11, 2023, 10:26 AM EDT
5 minDaniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry Prediction: Can Rodriguez Take Down Undefeated Garry at UFC Fight Night?
The biggest Irish superstar in UFC history makes his return to the octagon this Saturday. The undefeated Ian Garry will enter the cage as a sizeable front-runner against the formerly ranked Daniel 'D-Rod' Rodriguez. Garry has swelled to a -300 favorite, with Rodriguez coming back as a +250 underdog. Are these odds justified?
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry Start Time and Where to Watch
Date: Saturday, May 13, 2023
Start Time: 3:00 pm ET
Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN+
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry Prediction
In his first four UFC fights, Ian Garry has shown that he is a flashy striker with genuine knockout power, dropping three of his four opponents. He has also shown that he can be hit and hurt. In his last fight, he was knocked down and nearly stopped by a +650 underdog whom many thought had no business even being in the same octagon as the Irishman. We also saw Garry lose exchanges on the feet against Type 1 diabetic Jordan Williams before ultimately putting his lights out in the first round.
While he has displayed some holes in his game, he has also showcased a high level of offensive striking. What he lacks defensively, he has been able to supplement with his strike speed and shot selection. Additionally, he has proved that he can stand and bang for the full 15-minute duration of a three-round fight without tiring out. He will have to do that again if he wants to beat D-Rod.
D-Rod is as durable as they come. He has never been knocked out in his MMA career, despite facing some of the division's best. His resumé includes wins over Mike Perry, Li Jingliang (robbery), Kevin Lee, and Tim Means. When compared to his adversary, he is significantly more battle tested. One of the most unfair advantages of MMA is the 'Mexican chin.' Fighters of Mexican descent are seemingly impossible to knock out, and Rodriguez is no exception.
We have seen him eat big shots like they were tic-tacs and keep marching forward. This will be disheartening for Garry, who depends heavily on his power. But his toughness will not be enough on its own to get his hand raised. Garry is 6 foot 3 and masterful when fighting at range. If D-Rod wants to get back into the rankings, he is going to have to use his boxing and grappling to keep this fight at a close distance.
The more that I study this matchup, the more it looks like the K-Mart version of McGregor versus Diaz 1. An Irish hype train colliding with a tough, gritty, Mexican underdog. The difference is that McGregor was a proven champion in his fight. Garry has done nothing to earn this level of confidence from oddsmakers, and D-Rod is going to make them pay. Respectfully, I cannot bring myself to bet on a favorite whose best win was Gabe Green. My official pick is 0.75u on Daniel Rodriguez (+250).
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry Pick
0.75u Daniel Rodriguez ML +250 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick.
UFC Odds
