WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana UFC 289 Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana UFC 289 Pick

Amanda "The Lioness" Nunes has proven time and time again that she is the most dangerous fighter in women's MMA. After reclaiming her bantamweight title by dominating Juliana Peña at UFC 277, Nunes showed that she is virtually unstoppable when she is motivated and in top shape. Despite this, she is just -320 on the moneyline against the contender, Irene Aldana. Irene Aldana has earned this title shot after beating *checks notes* Macy Chiasson... Aldana is now 7-4 in the UFC and will take the step up from Macy Chiasson to one of the most dominant fighters the sport has seen.

Despite Nunes' impressive performance against Peña, bookmakers are still recovering from the shocking defeat of Valentina Shevchenko and even Nunes' first loss to Peña. This may explain why Irene Aldana is only a +250 underdog in this matchup. It's worth noting that Aldana, like Nunes, is also 35 years old, making them equal in terms of age, even though they are far apart in professional MMA experience.

The crucial factor here is Nunes' motivation. Aldana is hungry and determined to seize the bantamweight title, but it remains to be seen if Nunes is equally hungry and determined to defend it. If Nunes enters this fight with the same intensity and anger as she did in the Peña rematch, she should easily secure a victory. After all, she may be the best women's MMA fighter of all time, and this line does not show her the respect she deserves.

Aldana's opportunity to compete for the bantamweight belt arose due to Pena's unfortunate injury, which forced her to withdraw from the UFC 289 main event. Without this recent turn of events, it's questionable whether Aldana would have earned a shot at Nunes based solely on her own merit. Currently ranked fifth in the bantamweight division, Aldana has suffered decision losses to second-ranked Raquel Pennington and third-ranked Holly Holm. However, she secured a knockout win against fourth-ranked Ketlen Vieira, arguably her best win.

Over her nearly seven-year tenure in the UFC, Aldana has accumulated a 7-4 record inside the Octagon. While this is respectable, it's not particularly outstanding. Her back-to-back finishes over Yana Santos and Macy Chiasson are decent accomplishments, but they don't build a solid case for Aldana defeating arguably the greatest female fighter of all time. Nunes has defeated some of the best names to grace women's MMA, like Cris Cyborg, Holly Holm, and Ronda Rousey. If Aldana had beaten Holm and Pennington, maybe it would have strengthened her case for an upset. Unfortunately, based on their previous performances, it's difficult to argue for an Aldana victory confidently.

While Nunes possesses knockout power, she is also skilled in wrestling and possesses sneaky submission abilities. Aldana might have the toughness to withstand the early rounds, but it's hard to envision her crossing the finish line when fighters of lesser caliber than Nunes have stopped her. My favorite prop for this fight, specifically, is the submission prop. Nunes is +145 to get a KO/TKO, +300 to win by decision, and +470 to win by submission. The books have Nunes getting a submission as her least likely path to victory, but I do not agree.

Aldana has NEVER faced a submission attempt in the UFC yet, and Nunes will take her down without a doubt. All it takes is a few ground strikes for Aldana to make a mistake and turn to her back. There are other submissions Nunes could secure, but I think a rear naked choke is most likely. Either way, the price is best on Nunes to get Aldana to tap, and that will be my value bet for this fight because the moneyline is still too high to bet straight.

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana UFC 289 Pick

Pick: Amanda Nunes by Submission +470 (Bet $100 to collect $570 FanDuel has the best odds