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Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez are the main event at UFC 290 this Saturday. Can Volkanovski bounce back? UFC handicapper Ben Rajavuori answers.
ANALYSIS

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez Prediction: Can Volkanovski Bounce Back at UFC 290?

In a highly anticipated clash on July 8th, 2023, the octagon will witness a battle between two featherweight warriors, Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez. With both fighters possessing impressive records and unique skill sets, this fight promises to be a barn-burner for fight fans worldwide. The line is set wide for the champ, as the books have Volkanovski around -400 to take Rodriguez's interim belt. Will Rodriguez shock the world on Saturday night?

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez UFC 290 Start Time and Where to Watch

Date: Saturday, July 8, 2023

Time: 10:00 p.m. ET

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Where to Watch: PPV

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez Prediction

A determined Champion, Alexander Volkanovski enters the fight with a 25-2 record, boasting an impressive 12 knockouts and three submissions. Although he suffered his first loss in the UFC lightweight division against Islam Makhachev, Volkanovski proved his mettle by giving Makhachev his toughest test yet. Volkanovski, a former featherweight champion, had set his sights on joining the elite club of double champions. While his ambition fell short, his performance showcased his skill inside the cage in every facet.

The unpredictable striker Yair Rodriguez, with a record of 16-3, has made waves in the UFC with his unorthodox striking style and versatility. Known for his high-energy performances, Rodriguez secured the interim featherweight title in his last bout against Josh Emmett with a submission early on. His arsenal of kicks, including unique variations and combinations, makes him a formidable opponent for any fighter. Rodriguez has a record of 10-2 in the UFC, and the only two losses are to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway, two legends of the sport. Rodriguez has only lost to the best of the best, but unfortunately, Volkanovski is just that.

Volkanovski's strength lies in his technical specialties and ability to close the distance with lightning-fast strikes. With his short, fast hands, he excels in the pocket and can beat opponents to the punch. However, Rodriguez's unpredictable strikes and lightning-quick leg speed pose a similar, significant challenge. His unconventional approach and array of kicks from any position make him a threat to any opponent. Volkanovski must avoid falling into Rodriguez's traps, engaging intelligently while diversifying his attacks, which I trust he can.

Volkanovski's grappling skills could be a game-changer in this fight. He could neutralize his dangerous striking game if he can effectively utilize his wrestling to control Rodriguez on the ground. Additionally, Rodriguez's vulnerability in the pocket when extending combinations could be exploited by Volkanovski's fast hands.

While both fighters possess unique skills, Alexander Volkanovski enters the fight with an edge. His technical approach, wrestling ability, and experience at the championship level make him the favorite to retain his belt. However, Rodriguez's unpredictability and striking prowess cannot be underestimated, as he has proven himself against top contenders in the division.

At the end of the day, I am a bit torn. I think Rodriguez could pull it off with his unorthodox approach, but it will be a very large uphill battle. The line is a bit wide to me. I don't think Volkanovski should be -400 in this fight, but he is deservedly the favorite. I would say he should be closer to -250, which provides value on a stab for Rodriguez. However, the bet for me is the over. Both men have proven they are extremely durable.

Rodriguez has improved his cardio since training at elevation, and Volkanovski has always had good cardio. Rodriguez has only been stopped twice in his UFC career, and I don't think Volkanovski will overextend to look for a KO because he knows how dangerous Rodriguez can be. On the other hand, Volkanovski has only been finished once in his career early on in the regional scene. No one in the UFC has finished him. I am taking the fight to start round five to negate a crazy fifth-round knockout like we have seen unnaturally a lot lately.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez Pick

Pick: Volkanovski/Rodriguez Starts Round 5 -120 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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