Albert Duraev vs. Junyong Park Prediction: Will Park Continue His Success at UFC Fight Night?
Albert Duraev and Junyong Park face off in the e lone middleweight fight of the main card on Saturday's UFC Fight Night. Will Park continue his success? UFC betting expert Ben Rajavuori breaks down this Fight Night bout.
Ben Rajavuori - July 13, 2023, 5:02 PM EDT
7 minAlbert Duraev vs. Junyong Park Prediction: Will Park Continue His Success at UFC Fight Night?
The lone middleweight fight of the main card on Saturday night features two middleweights trying to enter the rankings in the form of Albert Duraev and Junyong Park. Both fighters are coming off wins, but it is Park who is riding a three-fight win streak, while Duraev is on a one-fight win streak. Park certainly has the better case for a ranking with a win, as he is now 6-1 in his last seven fights. The books also think he has the better case for a win here, as he is a -160 favorite on average to take care of business in this bout. However, my favorite play in this fight doesn't rely on who wins.
Duraev vs. Park Start Time and Where to Watch
When: Saturday, July 15, 2023
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Where: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+
Albert Duraev vs. Junyong Park Prediction
This fight will be a wrestler's paradise. Duraev is your typical Russian fighter with a very strong wrestling base. He wants the fight on the ground, as he does his best work from top control, and his striking is still a work in progress. Park is in a similar boat, although his striking is a bit ahead of Duraev's, which is probably the reason he is a decently-sized favorite.
While I do like Park to win the fight as the more well-rounded fighter, he has not necessarily stood out in his wins, but neither has Duraev. Instead, when looking at this fight, my favorite angle is the over. FanDuel has the over set at 2.5 with slight juice on the over, and that is my favorite angle on this fight.
I'm expecting a lot of ground time in this fight. While I expect Park to win more of the scrambling, I don't see him getting a submission win here. He does have back-to-back submission wins, but Duraev has good submission defense and has never been submitted before. The same is true the other way - I don't see Duraev being able to submit Park. While Duraev has nine wins by submissions in 16 overall wins, those were all on the regional scene, and he has yet to submit a UFC-level opponent, as it is much harder to do, and like Duraev, Park has good submission defense. Park has only been submitted once in the UFC, and it was in his debut.
As far as a knockout goes, Duraev doesn't have the skill to knock Park out. He may get lucky and land a haymaker, but he doesn't have crazy knockout power, and Park's chin has held up well so far. The same can be said for Park. His striking is still coming along, and he has yet to knock an opponent out in the UFC. If he were going to knock someone out, it would be this fight, honestly, as Duraev has shown holes in his striking defense, but I expect Park to shoot and get this to the ground if he hurts Duraev.
Ultimately, this has the feel of a stalemate. Park will likely win more wrestling exchanges and get his hand raised as a result, but the fight is pretty 50-50 in my book. Sure, there is some value on Duraev for that reason, but the over is a smarter play to me. Both have shown less-than-stellar finishing abilities at a high level, except for Park landing a few submissions, but Duraev should have the defense to nullify that threat. This is a fight that goes to a decision, even if there are some scary moments.
Albert Duraev vs. Junyong Park Pick
Pick: Park/Duraev Over 2.5 Rounds -130 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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