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UFC 291 brings an important co-main event featuring Alex Pereira and Jan Blachowicz. Can Pereira dominate at UFC 291? Ben Rajavuori answers.
ANALYSIS

Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Prediction: Can Pereira Dominate at UFC 291?

In the midst of a chaotic light heavyweight division, UFC 291 brings an important co-main event featuring Alex Pereira and Jan Blachowicz. While Dustin Poirier versus Justin Gaethje may be the main event, it's Blachowicz versus Pereira that carries significant implications for the 205-pound division. There was some word that this fight may be for the interim belt, but that is not the case, although the winner may be fighting for gold in the very near future. The books have this one as a razor-close fight, as Blachowicz is a very slight -115 favorite.

Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira UFC 291 Date, Time, and Where to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: PPV

Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Prediction

Since Jon Jones's departure, the light heavyweight division has seen multiple title changes and vacancies due to injuries, making the outcome of Blachowicz vs. Pereira even more crucial. The winner will likely earn a shot at the title in the not-too-distant future.

Jan Blachowicz, at 40 years old, may be the division's oldest contender, but don't let that fool you, as he still has devastating power. Blachowicz is well-rounded, as he has knocked out nine opponents and also submitted nine. He has decent power on the feet, but his strength in his wrestling and grappling is one of his main draws.

On the other hand, Alex Pereira, a former middleweight champion after knocking out Israel Adesanya, has made a mark as a kickboxer, transitioning into MMA with impressive skills. His left hook is technically sound and incredibly powerful, capable of delivering knockouts with minimal effort. Pereira's kickboxing ability makes him feared by anyone on the feet, even champions. However, there is still a question about Pereira's takedown defense and ground game, considering he has been a kickboxer for almost all of his career.

Pereira's defensive grappling has been questioned, and his takedown defense will face a stern test against Blachowicz. While he has shown improvement in his grappling skills, it remains uncertain if he can handle Blachowicz's wrestling, given the Pole's size and caliber. Pereira has been working with Glover Teixeira, the former light heavyweight champion, who is an excellent grappler and one of the best in the division. Glover has helped Pereira with his grappling, while Pereira has helped Glover with his striking, making the arrangement mutually beneficial.

For Blachowicz, victory will rely on implementing a grappling-heavy gameplan, utilizing takedowns and control to neutralize Pereira's striking arsenal. In contrast, Pereira's key to success lies in keeping the fight on the feet and avoiding grappling exchanges. His power and timing make him extremely dangerous in the stand-up game, capable of delivering knockout blows with precision. Maintaining distance and defending against Blachowicz's takedowns will be pivotal for Pereira's chances.

Pereira's best chance is probably a knockout. However, Blachowicz is not an easy man to knock out. Blachowicz has only been stopped by strikes once in his UFC tenure in a loss to Thiago Santos. While his chin has held up, the same could be said for Israel Adesanya. Adesanya had not ever been knocked out in his professional MMA career before his title bout with Pereira, which speaks volumes about Pereira's striking ability. Now, Pereira is even heavier, which means he will probably hit even harder, which makes this a dangerous fight for Blachowicz. I'm going to bank on the fact that Pereira can keep this fight standing by staying at range and not allowing Blachowicz to get any easy clinch positions. From there, this is Pereira's fight to lose.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Pick

Pick: Alex Pereira ML -105 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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