Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland Prediction: Can Chiesa Make a Successful Return at UFC 291?
Michael Chiesa and Kevin Holland kick off Saturday's UFC 291 main card. Can Chiesa make a successful return, or will Holland spoil it? Handicapper Ben Rajavuori breaks down this UFC 291 bout.
Ben Rajavuori
| 5 min
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland Prediction: Can Chiesa Make a Successful Return at UFC 291?
The UFC 291 main card opens with a welterweight bout between two vets of the sport, Michael Chiesa and Kevin Holland. Michael Chiesa is back after a nearly two-year layoff, while Holland has been one of the most active fighters in the sport over the last few years. Chiesa is coming off back-to-back losses to Vicente Luque and Sean Brady, while Holland bounced back from a two-loss streak with a win over Santiago Ponzinibbio last time out. Holland is the favorite in this fight, with odds nearing -150 at the time of writing. Can Chiesa get back on track and return with a win tomorrow night?
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland UFC 291 Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: PPV
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland Prediction
Michael Chiesa, as mentioned earlier, is returning to the Octagon after nearly two years due to a back injury. Chiesa is 18-6 entering this fight, and has not been very active in the UFC. Despite his impressive grappling skills and ten career submissions in sixteen pro wins, Chiesa's striking has been a weak point in his game. With an embarrassingly-low 1.88 significant strikes landed per minute and just 41 percent accuracy, Chiesa's striking statistics are the lowest among the fighters currently ranked in the Top 15 of his division.
On the other hand, Kevin Holland, who holds a professional record of 24-9, has made quite the name for himself with his unorthodox and unpredictable striking style. At 6'3" with an 81" reach, he towers over most opponents in the welterweight division. Holland's striking game involves utilizing his reach advantage, employing the lead jab and long straight kicks to keep his opponents at bay. However, he has had some issues with his takedown defense, which could play into Chiesa's strengths as a talented wrestler.
Holland's recent drop to welterweight started strong with consecutive wins and finishes over Alex Oliveira and Tim Means. Yet, he faced challenges against Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson, exposing some vulnerabilities in his game. Neither was a bad loss, considering both are top-level welterweights, but if Holland wants to contend for the belt, he needs to notch another big win under his belt.
Despite Holland's impressive striking, he needs to be cautious when facing Chiesa. Holland tends to rush in with explosive striking and chase his opponents when they retreat, making him vulnerable to counter takedowns. Chiesa, with his skillful timing and wrestling abilities, will likely capitalize on such opportunities. Chiesa absolutely needs to do this to win this fight.
The key for Chiesa will be to get the fight to the ground and dominate from top position, as he has done in previous victories over solid grapplers like Neil Magny and Rafael dos Anjos. He excels in the clinch, using his wrestling to trip or throw his opponents effectively. If Chiesa can implement this game plan, he might control the fight and limit Holland's striking opportunities.
Nevertheless, Holland's powerful striking cannot be ignored. When he stays at range and maintains technical, long strikes, he becomes an extremely tough opponent to beat. If Chiesa fails to secure the takedown early in the round, the fight will likely stay on the feet, giving Holland more chances to showcase his striking skills and possibly finish the fight.
Given Holland's paths to victory, I love him to win this fight. Not only will he have a six-inch reach advantage, but he is already the better striker. What many people forget is that Kevin Holland literally has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so he is no slouch on the ground.
While Holland has struggled with wrestlers, he does also have a few submissions in the UFC, and he is crafty on the ground. At welterweight, his long limbs will also be more useful in grappling exchanges. Holland can truly finish this fight standing or on the ground, which is the bet I am going with to knock the juice off the moneyline.
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland Pick
Pick: Kevin Holland by Knockout/TKO or Submission -105 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
UFC Odds
