Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Prediction: Which Vet Will Emerge Victorious at UFC 291?
Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green meet in the cage in the second bout of the main card at UFC 291 this weekend. Which veteran will emerge victorious at UFC 291? Ben Rajavuori breaks it down.
Ben Rajavuori
| 5 min
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Prediction: Which Vet Will Emerge Victorious at UFC 291?
Two veterans of the octagon will clash when Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green meet in the cage in the second bout of the main card at UFC 291. Both Ferguson and Green are riding losing streaks heading into this fight, and both may be nearing retirement. Green even mentioned the "R" word in an interview, even though it's always hard to gauge exactly when a fighter will retire. Still, Green is a massive favorite in this fight over Ferguson, touching odds of -420 at the time I'm writing this. Is that line accurate?
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green UFC 291 Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: PPV
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Prediction
Ferguson's journey to this matchup has been filled with ups and downs. After a disastrous two-year stretch that saw him on the receiving end of five consecutive losses, "El Cucuy" is now determined to make a successful return to the octagon. Some might say his battle with Justin Gaethje at UFC 249 had a lasting impact on his performances in subsequent fights. Others, however, believe that Ferguson faced nothing but top-tier competition during his losing streak, with fighters like Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, and Michael Chandler in his path. I'm going to side with the latter.
As far as resumes go, it is hard to find another active fighter with a tougher one than Ferguson. Some say that lightweight is one of the toughest divisions in the sport, and Ferguson has lived there his whole career, fighting the best of the best. He has faced legends like Rafael Dos Anjos and Edson Barboza earlier in his career and recently has had one of the toughest four-fight stretches I have ever seen. The gauntlet of Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, and Michael Chandler is no losing streak to scoff at. So the talks that Ferguson is "washed" now is an overreaction to his losing streak that no one should be ashamed of.
Meanwhile, Bobby Green, an entertaining fighter with an unorthodox style of his own, is also coming off a rocky path. Prior to a controversial no-contest against Jared Gordon, Green suffered knockout losses to Drew Dober and the current lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev. Age is also a factor for Green in this matchup, with Green being three years younger than Ferguson, but it remains to be seen how much it will affect their performance inside the cage.
Both fighters are well-rounded and strong in multiple areas, both offensively and defensively. Green seems to be the more active wrestler with better takedown defense, potentially giving him an advantage in the grappling department. However, Ferguson's unpredictable fighting style, blending elements of boxing, BJJ, wrestling, Muay Thai, and more, makes him a wild card capable of surprising even the most seasoned opponents.
For Green to secure a victory, he must utilize his boxing skills effectively while being cautious not to engage in prolonged exchanges with the unpredictable Ferguson. Moreover, he needs to address his grappling weaknesses, particularly his vulnerability, when taken to the ground by superior grapplers. Green's conditioning will also play a pivotal role, as maintaining an active pace for all fifteen minutes will be crucial in this fight.
As for Ferguson, he needs to get back in the form that made him a dominant force in the lightweight division. His unorthodox approach, once successful, has recently backfired against top-tier opponents. If Ferguson can tap into his unpredictability and showcase the funky footwork and deceptive attacks that defined his prime, he may stand a chance against Green.
There is definitely more pressure on Green here, as he is the younger fighter and still expected to be "in his prime." Green is riding a losing streak just like Ferguson, but he still feels like the fighter that more desperately needs a win here. For Ferguson, this may be a best-case scenario, as now he feels like he has nothing to lose, as expectations have nearly depleted after dropping five in a row. However, while on a losing streak, Ferguson is still one of the elites at lightweight, and he once held the interim belt. Given these highly skewed odds, I'm going go to gamble on Ferguson. I can't help but think his five-fight losing streak is heavily swaying the odds here, but this fight is not the same as any of the four I previously mentioned.
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Pick
Pick: Fergusson ML +320 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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