Ibo Aslan vs. Paulo Renato Jr. Prediction: Can Renato Jr. Bounce Back in His Return to the Contender Series?

Ibo Aslan vs. Paulo Renato Jr. Prediction: Can Renato Jr. Bounce Back in His Return to the Contender Series?

Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series is back for week two tonight and has five more exciting bouts filled with UFC hopefuls. This card features a few DWCS returning fighters, including Paulo Renato Jr., who fought on the Contender Series last year against Jamal Pogues, losing by decision. In his return, Renato hopes to beat Aslan and get a contract. Hoping to stop him in his tracks in Ibo Aslan.

Ibo Aslan vs. Paulo Renato Jr. Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: August 15, 2023
• Time: 7:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN+

Ibo Aslan vs. Paulo Renato Jr. Prediction

Aslan, a 27-year-old with an impressive 11-1 record in his professional career, has captured attention with his relentless pursuit of knockouts. Known for his fearless approach, Aslan's knockout victories attest to his determination to secure victory within the first few minutes in the octagon. However, the pace he sets early in the fight often wanes after the first round, rendering his strikes slightly less and less accurate and powerful the longer the fight goes on. Aslan's vulnerabilities become evident as his strikes become predictable, leaving him susceptible to counters due to his exposed chin and lowered guard during striking exchanges.

While Aslan has flourished against lower-level opponents, the UFC platform promises to test his capabilities against a higher caliber of competition. His takedown defense, while serviceable at the regional level, may prove inadequate against the grappling of UFC-caliber opponents.

In the opposing corner stands Paulo Renato Jr., who returns to the Contender Series in a new weight class, the Light Heavyweight division. The first time Renato fought on the Contender Series, he fought at heavyweight, but he weighed in at just 220 pounds with a 266-pound limit. This proved to be a big difference in the fight, as Pogues' size was just too much for him. Renato has fought at light heavyweight his whole career, and this time around, he will be fighting in his most natural weight class, where he is much more comfortable.

Renato Jr.'s striking is much different from Aslans in that he is more patient, favoring technical striking over power. He still has good power, but he invests in the body more and loves throwing leg kicks. Renato favors body jabs and body kicks over swinging for the chin with everything he has, which is playing chess over checkers. While Aslan only needs one to land, if he doesn't land it, this fight becomes a lot harder and a lot quicker. Renato will be looking to touch Aslan up with body strikes and staying out of range, while Aslan will be swinging for the fences.

Given Aslan's record of knockouts and Renato's failure on the Contender Series, it's easy to see why Alsan is a favorite here. However, outside of a big shot landing in the first 2-3 minutes for Aslan, this is Renato's fight in my eyes. Renato only lost his first fight on the show because he was fighting out of his weight class, but he will have much more success back at 205 pounds. I expect Renato to be the much more technical striker and to piece Aslan up to a late second-round or third-round finish.

Ibo Aslan vs. Paulo Renato Jr. Prediction

Pick: Paulo Renato Jr. ML +120 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick